Why this analyst just chopped his price target on Medicenna Therapeutics

Research Capital analyst Andre Uddin says Medicenna Therapeutics (Medicenna Therapeutics Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MDNA) has upcoming clinical catalysts, but he has lowered his target after removing MDNA55 partnership assumptions from his valuation.

In a June 29 update, Uddin maintained his “Speculative Buy” rating on Medicenna but lowered his target to $1.60 from $3.75.

Medicenna reported a fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 loss of $4.2-million, or four cents per share, better than Uddin’s forecast for a $5.9-million loss and consensus at $5.6-million. Uddin said financial results are less important because Medicenna is a clinical-stage biotech company.

The company ended the quarter with $6.3-million in cash and no debt. Subsequent to quarter-end, Medicenna completed a $4.4-million equity financing and announced a term sheet with Sorbie Bornholm and Sorbie Investments that could provide additional capital.

Uddin estimates Medicenna’s current cash position at about $5.4-million. Assuming an $8.0-million financing from the Sorbie transaction, he estimates the company’s cash runway extends into fiscal Q4 2027, or calendar Q1 2027.

During fiscal 2027, Uddin expects clinical updates from MDNA11, including mono and combination arms of the Phase 1/2 ABILITY-1 study, as well as the Phase 1b NEO-CYT neo-adjuvant study in earlier-line settings. Positive data could increase partnership interest.

Uddin pushed his potential MDNA11 partnership assumption to fiscal Q1 2028, or calendar Q3 2027.

For MDNA55, Uddin said management continues to pursue partnership opportunities, but the process has taken longer than expected despite compelling clinical data. As a result, he removed his MDNA55 partnership assumption from his model and NPV valuation.

The removal of MDNA55, combined with dilution from recent and expected financing, drove the lower target.

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