MDA Space has “home run” potential, this analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley says MDA Space’s (MDA Space Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MDA) $688-million Canadian Space Agency contract is a reminder that the company’s sales pipeline includes large opportunities.

In a June 24 report, Stanley reiterated his “Buy” rating and street-high $80.00 target on MDA.

“Earlier today, MDA announced its largest disclosed contract win since February 2025, a $688M award from the Canadian Space Agency,” Stanley said. “While we are leaving our estimates unchanged for now, we view the development positively, as it is a reminder that MDA’s $40B sales pipeline features contracts of significant size.”

The contract includes the supply of a synthetic aperture radar satellite that will operate with the RADARSAT Constellation Mission satellites, along with launch services and enhancements to satellite ground control, security and data management systems.

Stanley said the award will be added to backlog in Q2. MDA’s backlog stood at $3.7-billion at the end of Q1.

The new satellite will be based on MDA CHORUS, the company’s fourth-generation Earth observation satellite, which remains on track for launch by the end of this year. Stanley said the contract should begin contributing to revenue in fiscal 2027, requires minimal capital spending and is expected to be cash-flow positive this year because of associated advances.

Stanley said the award is likely MDA’s largest disclosed contract since its $1.1-billion Globalstar win in February 2025 and should support strong order bookings and book-to-bill results in Q2.

The analyst noted that MDA now trades at 19 times his fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA forecast of $452-million, representing an average 82% discount to peers Intuitive Machines and Redwire.

Since MDA’s mid-March NYSE listing, Stanley said the company’s 10-day average trading volume has more than tripled, with NYSE volumes now approaching 60% of the total.

Stanley expects MDA to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $343-million on revenue of $1.80-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $452-million on revenue of $2.29-billion in fiscal 2027.

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