Montreal residential real estate: a two-speed market in June 2026, according to the Indice Tardif
Overall score of 29/100 (slight buyer’s zone), yet the duplex tops out at 82/100. Median prices are holding, activity is easing and negotiation is tightening.
MONTREAL, July 2, 2026 /CNW/ – Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif today releases the Indice Tardif for June 2026, the residential real estate indicator for the Island of Montreal designed by David Tardif, a real estate broker licensed by the OACIQ (Quebec’s real estate regulator). The Indice assigns a transactional-conditions score to each segment (zone × property type) and documents the microstructure of transactions. The result: 29 out of 100 overall, in the “slight buyer” zone — a figure that masks a deeply divided market.
|
KEY FIGURES — JUNE 2026
Source: Indice Tardif — Centris data compiled by Endurance (June 2026). |
Behind the average: June’s market, segment by segment
The overall score of 29/100 covers three distinct readings: the balance of power by property type, the mechanics of negotiation and the per-door economics of the plex.
1. The score by category
In June 2026, the gap between segments ranges from 11/100 (5+ unit multiplex, strong buyer) to 82/100 (duplex, strong seller). One island, two opposite markets in the same month.
|
Category |
Score /100 |
Market zone |
|
Duplex |
82 |
Strong seller |
|
Fourplex (quadruplex) |
75 |
Slight seller |
|
Triplex |
57 |
Balanced |
|
Single-family |
37 |
Slight buyer |
|
Condominium |
22 |
Slight buyer |
|
5+ unit multiplex |
11 |
Strong buyer |
The full article publishes the score for all 34 territories of the island, borough by borough.
2. The microstructure of transactions
The market is cooling in volume, not yet in value. Four indicators illuminate the mechanics of negotiation:
|
Transaction microstructure indicator |
Island of Montreal — June 2026 |
|
Properties that had to cut their price |
31.0% (27.5% a year earlier) |
|
Sales closed at or above asking |
27.4% (of which above: 19.5%) |
|
Median overbid when a sale exceeds asking |
+3.4% (mean +4.5%) |
|
Sold price / initial list price (median) |
96.8% — median discount ~$19,900 |
|
Median time on market |
45 days |
Overbidding (sales strictly above asking) is more frequent in small plexes, but its magnitude stays modest across the board:
The median overbid for triplex, fourplex and 5+ unit multiplex rests on small samples (16, 11 and 5 sales above asking) — indicative. Full per-category table in the article.
3. The plex, door by door
For the investor, the sticker price says little. The Indice Tardif publishes the median price per door and gross rent multiplier (GRM) for each plex type:
|
Plex type |
Median price |
Price per door |
Median GRM |
|
Duplex |
$840,000 |
$420,000 |
18.1 |
|
Triplex |
$937,500 |
$312,500 |
17.3 |
|
Fourplex |
$1,150,000 |
$287,500 |
17.6 |
|
5+ unit multiplex |
$1,220,000 |
$222,917 |
16.7 |
Key nuance developed in the article: in small plexes (fourplex and under), the seller’s advantage concentrates on buildings with a vacant unit, allowing owner-occupancy. A fully tenanted small plex tends to trade to the buyer’s advantage.
“A median price tells you how much. A score tells you who’s driving the negotiation. At 29 out of 100, the average leans toward buyers — but the duplex remains a sellers’ market. When a quarter of listings expire, it isn’t the market price that’s the problem, it’s the asking price.”
— David Tardif, real estate broker (OACIQ), creator of the Indice Tardif
Resilient median prices, easing activity
Despite firm sales down 11.7% year over year and expired listings up 31.7%, median prices are holding: condominium $493,000 (+1.6%), single-family $834,000 (+3.0%), plex $920,000 (+0.8%). The market is cooling in volume, not yet in value. Source: Centris data compiled by Endurance.
Macroeconomic context
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10, 2026, a fifth consecutive hold, amid inflation back up to 3.2% (Statistics Canada). The 5-year variable mortgage rate (about 3.35%) keeps its edge over the 5-year fixed (4.04% to 4.34%), supporting buyer affordability.
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The full analysis — the scores for all 34 territories, the detailed read by category, the microstructure tables and the FAQ — is published at enduranceimmobilier.com/indice-tardif. |
Methodology
The Indice Tardif combines three signals into a score from 0 to 100: the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR, 40%), the expiry ratio (30%) and the year-over-year sales momentum (30%). It relies on Centris data compiled by Endurance, under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, an OACIQ-licensed broker, and reveals no individual transaction price (compliant with Quebec’s Law 25). The full methodology is public.
About Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif
Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif is a Montreal real estate team focused on analysis and client performance. It publishes the Indice Tardif, a weekly and monthly indicator of transactional conditions in the residential market of the Island of Montreal, designed to offer a local, granular read that complements regional indices such as the APCIQ’s Centris HPI.
Full analysis, FAQ and sources: enduranceimmobilier.com/indice-tardif
Note to editors: the Indice Tardif is a market indicator provided for information purposes. It constitutes neither financial nor individualized legal advice and reveals no individual transaction price (compliant with Law 25). Data comes from Centris, compiled by Endurance; the macroeconomic context draws on the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada.
SOURCE Endurance Real Estate by Tardif
