Is Keel Infrastructure (TSX:KEEL) a buy?

ATB Capital Markets says Keel Infrastructure (Keel Infrastructure Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:KEEL) is taking a disciplined approach as it shifts from Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing and AI infrastructure.

In an Aug. 11 update, analyst Martin Toner maintained his “Outperform” rating and $9.00 target on Keel. His target is based on a sum-of-the-parts and multiples-based valuation, including about $5.1-billion of value for the company’s HPC business.

Keel reported Q2 revenue of $30.4-million, below consensus at $31.5-million. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $23.7-million, below consensus for negative $14.4-million, while net loss was $65.0-million.

Toner said the net loss mainly reflected $84.1-million of non-cash depreciation tied to accelerated asset write-downs as Keel shut down its U.S. Bitcoin mining operations.

Keel completed the shutdown of its U.S. Bitcoin mining operations on June 29, leaving no expected U.S. mining revenue beginning in Q3. Legacy Canadian mining continues at about two to three Bitcoin per day ahead of a planned consolidation into the 96-megawatt Sherbrooke HPC facility.

The company’s Bitcoin holdings fell to 2,261 Bitcoin at quarter-end, worth $132.4-million, and declined further to 1,861 Bitcoin by Aug. 7 as management continued winding down the position.

Keel’s total liquidity stood at $819-million as of Aug. 7.

Toner said permitting at Panther Creek has been delayed by several months because of routine processing backlogs at Pennsylvania’s Eastern Department of Environmental Protection, while Moses Lake also saw a minor timing shift. Management said the delays do not change planned 2027 energization timelines, project economics or customer interest.

Keel’s total power pipeline has reached 2.2 gigawatts, helped by municipal approvals for the 96-megawatt Sherbrooke campus.

Toner said commercial negotiations remain active at Moses Lake, Sharon and Panther Creek with potential tenants including hyperscalers, GPU cloud providers, neoclouds and enterprises. Management said inbound demand continues to exceed available power capacity.

The analyts expects Keel to generate negative Adjusted EBITDA of $73.4-million on revenue of $107.7-million in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $2.8-million on revenue of $95.1-million in fiscal 2027.

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