MDA Space, Redwire or Intuitive Machines: Which stock is cheapest?

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley says MDA Space’s (MDA Space Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MDA)  Q2 results were ahead of expectations, with strong bookings and a modestly higher 2026 outlook.

In an Aug. 10 update, Stanley maintained his “Buy” rating and street-high $88.00 target on MDA.

MDA reported Q2 revenue of $499-million, Adjusted EBITDA of $96-million and adjusted EPS of 36 cents, ahead of Stanley’s estimates of $435-million, $80-million and 27 cents. Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA also beat the highest Street estimates of $467-million and $90-million.

Stanley said the strong revenue beat drove gross profit above his forecast, with the upside flowing through to Adjusted EBITDA.

The company used $93-million of cash from operations in the quarter, mainly because of working capital tied to backlog execution. Stanley expects stronger operating cash flow in future quarters as sales momentum improves and customer advances increase.

MDA ended the quarter with $398-million of cash and nearly all of its $700-million revolver available.

“Following equity and debt financings completed in July, we continue to believe that our balance sheet estimates for Q4/26, which assume closing of both the BCT and CLS acquisitions at year-end, are more relevant for investors,” Stanley said.

Net order bookings were $809-million, the strongest level since Q2 2024, lifting backlog to just over $4.0-billion. Stanley said the $688-million Canadian Space Agency contract was the main driver, while most of the recently announced $474-million Telesat contract expansion should appear in Q3 bookings.

MDA raised the low end of its 2026 revenue guidance to $1.8-billion from $1.7-billion, leaving the high end at $1.9-billion. It also raised the low end of its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $330-million from $320-million, with the high end unchanged at $370-million.

Stanley said the midpoint of the updated guidance implies year-over-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 13% and 8%, respectively.

The analyst also pointed to optionality from SpaceRan, a potential satellite communications network led by MDA and Canadian partners, and on-orbit computing opportunities. The planned CLS acquisition would add more than 900 servers, supporting MDA’s AI plans.

Stanley said MDA trades at 16 times his fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA forecast, a steep discount to space peers Intuitive Machines and Redwire despite a stronger financial track record.

Potential catalysts include contract wins, Q3 results in early November, progress on the BCT and CLS acquisitions, and tuck-in M&A.

Stanley expects MDA to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $347-million on revenue of $1.83-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $562-million on revenue of $2.84-billion in fiscal 2027.

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