Keel Infrastructure: this analyst just trimmed his price target

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner says Keel Infrastructure’s (Keel Infrastructure Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:KEEL) valuation remains tied mainly to its high-performance computing data centre pipeline, despite near-term volatility from dilution concerns.

In a July 20 preview, Toner maintained his “Outperform” rating on Keel but lowered his target to $9.00 from $10.00.

Toner said the lower target reflects more conservative Bitcoin assumptions, while the company’s high-performance computing opportunity continues to drive most of his valuation.

Keel remains in a capital-intensive, pre-revenue stage for its HPC buildout, meaning trailing results should continue to show losses. During the quarter, the company closed an upsized $458-million convertible senior notes offering, adding to an existing liquidity pool of $533-million.

Toner said investors will watch how quickly that capital is deployed into site construction, land development and the company’s 2.2-gigawatt development pipeline.

The pipeline includes 341 megawatts of energized capacity, 430 megawatts secured through utility agreements and 1.5 gigawatts of expansion capacity. Management continues to target three signed hyperscaler or AI customer leases by the end of 2026, with revenue expected to begin in 2027.

Toner said the recent appointment of former Digital Realty Trust executive Ganesh Aiyer as president suggests Keel is moving to formalize commercial agreements.

“While the stock has experienced recent volatility due to dilution concerns from the convertible notes, the fundamental thesis for the company remains highly constructive,” Toner said.

The analyst said the key value driver is Keel’s access to large-scale power, with potential upside if management secures tier-one tenants.

Toner raised his 2026 Bitcoin price forecast to $95,000 from $80,168, lifting his revenue forecast to $122.9 million despite slightly lower expected Bitcoin production. He expects Keel to generate negative adjusted EBITDA of $43.2 million in fiscal 2026.

For 2027, he lowered his Bitcoin price forecast to $115,000 from $131,250 and increased operating expense assumptions, leading him to forecast negative adjusted EBITDA of $20.5 million on revenue of $72.7 million.

-30-