Green Thumb Industries: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Green Thumb Industries (Green Thumb Industries Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:GTII) remains a top U.S. cannabis pick after Q2 results that were generally in line with expectations.

In an Aug. 5 update, Haywood Securities analyst Neal Gilmer maintained his “Buy” rating and $20.50 target on Green Thumb. His target is based on 13.5 times his 2027 EBITDA estimate, discounted at 15%.

“We continue to favour the U.S. cannabis market and GTI continues to demonstrate a leading position in the industry,” Gilmer said.

Green Thumb reported Q2 revenue of $306.7-million, up 4.6% year-over-year and 2.2% sequentially. Revenue was ahead of Gilmer’s $298.1-million estimate and consensus at $299.0-million.

Adjusted EBITDA was $68.6-million, representing a 22.4% margin, in line with Gilmer’s $68.5-million estimate. Gross margin was 45.0%, also in line with expectations.

Gilmer said Green Thumb’s exposure to newer markets, including Minnesota, has helped support steady performance despite pricing pressure in other markets. Retail revenue rose 3.6% year-over-year, driven mainly by Minnesota, Connecticut, Florida and Ohio. CPG revenue rose 3.7%, also helped by Minnesota, New Jersey and Ohio.

Green Thumb generated $29.0-million of operating cash flow in the quarter and $104.8-million in the first half of 2026. It ended Q2 with $283.6-million of cash and $283.0-million of debt.

The company also repurchased 7.9-million shares for $48.3-million during the quarter.

Management guided for Q3 revenue to be relatively flat because of the current pricing environment. It also reiterated expected 2026 capital spending of about $80-million, while evaluating plans in Virginia ahead of the planned launch of adult-use sales on July 1, 2027.

Gilmer said Green Thumb’s balance sheet, cash flow generation and operational execution leave it well positioned to maintain its leadership in the U.S. cannabis market.

The analyst expects Green Thumb will generate Adjusted EBITDA of $295.6-million on revenue of $1.24-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $303.7-million on revenue of $1.27-billion in fiscal 2027.

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