This cannabis stock is a “Top Pick” for 2026, analyst says

Haywood Securities analyst Neal Gilmer maintained his “Buy” rating and $19.00 price target on Green Thumb Industries (Green Thumb Industries Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:GTII) following what he described as another strong quarter.

In a Feb. 26 report, Gilmer said Green Thumb delivered Q4 results above expectations, continuing the steady performance seen throughout 2025.

“We believe Green Thumb’s strong track record and balance sheet leave it well-positioned to maintain its leadership in the U.S. cannabis market,” he said.

Green Thumb reported Q4 net revenue of $311.1-million, up 5.7% year-over-year and 6.8% sequentially, ahead of both Gilmer’s $293.3-million estimate and $296.1-million consensus. Adjusted EBITDA was $93.4-million, representing a 30.0% margin and well above estimates.

Gross margin of 45.4% came in below Gilmer’s expectations due to licensing fees tied to the company’s agreement with RYTHM, which became effective Nov. 1. During the quarter, Green Thumb paid $6.8-million in licensing fees related to the transaction.

The company generated $90.1-million in operating cash flow in Q4 and ended the year with $274.3-million in cash against $244.9-million in total debt. Subsequent to quarter-end, Green Thumb drew an additional $50.0-million under its existing credit facility.

Operationally, retail revenue increased 5.4% year-over-year, supported in part by the launch of adult-use sales in Minnesota. Consumer packaged goods revenue declined 1% amid continued pricing pressure, and comparable store sales decreased 1.8% across 99 locations.

For Q1, management guided revenue down mid-single digits due to seasonality and ongoing pricing pressure. Gilmer made modest upward revisions to his revenue estimates following the strong Q4, while lowering gross margin forecasts to reflect the RYTHM licensing structure.

Gilmer continues to view Green Thumb as his top pick in the sector, citing its balance sheet strength and consistent cash flow generation. His $19.00 target is based on 12.5x his 2027 EBITDA estimate, discounted at 15%.

He expects Green Thumb to generate $310.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $1,220.3-million in fiscal 2026, improving to $314.9-million in EBITDA on revenue of $1,251.2-million in fiscal 2027.

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