This analyst just lowered his price target on Sabio

Paradigm Capital analyst Daniel Rosenberg maintained a “Buy” rating on Sabio Holdings (Sabio Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:SBIO) but lowered his target to C$0.50 from C$0.75 after fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.

Sabio provides digital advertising campaigns, services and analytics for brand marketers and agencies, with a focus on the connected-TV market.

“While a changing industry landscape has pressured smaller DSPs, Sabio has done well to stand up new products as it eyes a more active 2026 political year,” Rosenberg said in his May 3 note. “We think valuation remains attractive for a growing, profitable business with differentiated technology.”

Sabio reported Q4 net revenue of $9.8-million, down 46.6% year-over-year and below consensus at $12.4-million. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2.1-million, compared with expectations for breakeven. Rosenberg said the shortfall was mainly tied to tariff-related pressure on automotive and telecom advertisers, along with some revenue shifting from Q1 into later quarters.

Despite the weaker quarter, Sabio maintained 90% customer retention and added a record 126 new logos in 2025. Rosenberg said growth in 2026 should be weighted to the second half, helped by U.S. midterm election spending, programmatic growth and international expansion.

Programmatic gross revenue rose to $2.7-million in Q4 from $0.2-million in Q1 2025, while U.K. revenue increased about 250% year-over-year. Rosenberg said Sabio’s App Science platform, which now covers 80 million households, or about 70% of U.S. streaming households, remains a key differentiator.

“Despite recent macro-driven pressure, we continue to see the company’s differentiated offering and positioning in CTV as undervalued,” Rosenberg said.

Rosenberg values Sabio at 1.2x 2027 estimated EV/net revenue. He expects Adjusted EBITDA of $5.6-million on revenue of $56.8-million in fiscal 2026, falling to $2.2-million on revenue of $53.7-million in fiscal 2027.

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