MDA Space stock is a double from here, analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley reiterated his “Buy” rating and street-high $88.00 target on MDA Space (MDA Space Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MDA) after Czechoslovak Group acquired a 9.5% stake in the company.

In an Oct. 13 update, Stanley said the investment makes CSG, a major Czech defence-industrial and engineering group, MDA’s largest single shareholder, with a stake worth about $630-million.

CSG described the purchase as a strategic investment that could lead to co-investments with MDA in European manufacturing or assembly facilities, strategic acquisitions and the introduction of CSG customer relationships to MDA.

“We view the development favourably, given the opportunities it opens for MDA,” Stanley said.

The analyst argued that CSG’s investment is notable because it marks the company’s first major move into space, despite its strong exposure to ammunition production, including 155 mm shells, which remain in short supply in the U.S. and Europe.

“CSG’s decision to choose MDA as its primary investment is a strong endorsement of MDA’s growth potential, especially given CSG’s thriving ammunition business,” Stanley said.

CSG cited MDA’s technological depth, diversification, scale and exposure to both commercial and government markets.

Stanley said the announcement should draw more investor attention to MDA.

CSG was founded in 1995 as Excalibur Army and has since expanded through organic growth and acquisitions. It completed its IPO on Euronext Amsterdam earlier this year.

Stanley  thinks CSG views defence and space as tightly connected, making its move into space a natural extension. The company also announced a dedicated space team to support long-term growth.

MDA CEO Mike Greenley welcomed the investment in CSG’s announcement, saying it supports MDA’s investor and business partner base in Europe.

Stanley noted that the investment follows MDA’s plan to acquire France-based CLS.

CSG reported first-half 2026 revenue of €3.25-billion and EBIT of €784-million, with 84% of sales from ammunition. The company reiterated fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of €7.4-billion to €7.6-billion, implying growth of 10% to 13%.

CSG also had a €17-billion backlog, a €29-billion pipeline, more than €1.6-billion of cash and equivalents and net debt to last-12-month EBITDA of 1.6 times at the end of the first half.

MDA trades at 13 times Stanley’s fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA estimate, below Intuitive Machines at 58 times and Redwire at 417 times.

Potential catalysts include contract wins, Q3 results in November, progress toward closing the BCT and CLS transactions and tuck-in acquisitions.

Stanley expects MDA to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $347-million on revenue of $1.83-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $562-million on revenue of $2.84-billion in fiscal 2027.

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