Uber is loaded with catalysts, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Rohit Kulkarni reiterated a “Buy”  rating and US $110.00 12-month price target on Uber Technologies (Uber Technologies Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:UBER) ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release, scheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 4, before market open.

In a Feb. 3 earnings preview, Kulkarni said Uber will report fourth-quarter results with additional disclosure around adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS, though the company will not provide adjusted EBITDA guidance. He said that omission could contribute to a noisy post-earnings reaction, but argued the risk-reward remains attractive at current levels, with Uber shares trading near roughly 23x 2027E P/E and about 15x 2027E EV/EBITDA.

Kulkarni said near-term upside drivers include potential FX tailwinds from a weaker U.S. dollar, the recently announced grocery delivery partnership with Kroger, and progress on non-Waymo robotaxi initiatives involving Avride, WeRide and Pony.ai. He also pointed to developments within Uber’s autonomous vehicle and AI labs as longer-term catalysts…

Kulkarni said near-term upside drivers include potential FX tailwinds from a weaker U.S. dollar, the recently announced grocery delivery partnership with Kroger, and progress on non-Waymo robotaxi initiatives involving Avride, WeRide and Pony.ai. He also pointed to developments within Uber’s autonomous vehicle and AI labs as longer-term catalysts.

For the quarter, Kulkarni said he expects a constructive market reaction if gross bookings exceed US$53.2-billion, revenue growth is at or above 20% year over year, and operating income tops US$1.85-billion. Looking ahead to first-quarter guidance, he said gross bookings above US$51-billion at the midpoint and adjusted EPS above US$0.75 would likely be received positively.

Kulkarni said investors will also be focused on mobility and delivery take rates, particularly if investment intensity rises in either segment amid competitive pressures from Waymo in rides or Amazon Fresh in delivery. He added that the roughly 2% weakening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies in the fourth quarter of 2025 should translate into a more favourable first-quarter gross bookings outlook.

Addressing the stock’s recent range-bound performance, Kulkarni noted that Uber shares have largely traded between US$80.00 and US$100.00 since May 2025, despite steady upward revisions to Street expectations for gross bookings, revenue and EBITDA over both 2025 and 2026. He said a step-change in gross bookings growth or tangible progress in robotaxi or autonomous delivery could help break the shares out of that range.

Kulkarni added that Uber’s combined rides and delivery platform could prove advantageous during an investment-heavy cycle, drawing parallels to the benefits seen when food delivery was scaled in 2018. He said he will be watching for updated disclosure on how many delivery users are first entering the ecosystem through grocery and retail, as well as commentary from large grocers on balancing first-party delivery with third-party platforms such as Uber.

From a valuation perspective, Kulkarni said Uber shares are trading near the middle of their recent range, having traded between roughly 13x and 19x EV/EBITDA over the past 12 months.

Kulkarni forecasts that Uber will generate US$8.73-billion in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$51.97-billion in fiscal 2025, improving to US$11.68-billion in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$60.23-billion in fiscal 2026.

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