Should you sell your HLS Therapeutics stock?

Stifel Canada resumed coverage of HLS Therapeutics (HLS Therapeutics Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:HLS) with a “Hold” rating and raised its target price to $4.75 from $4.00, reflecting the inclusion of newly licensed cardiovascular drug Nilemdo in its valuation framework.

In a company update, Stifel analyst Justin Keywood said recent discussions with management reinforced his view that the commercial opportunity for Nilemdo, a cholesterol-lowering therapy also marketed as Nexletol in the U.S., is meaningful given the level of unmet need in Canada, though execution and reimbursement risks warrant a cautious outlook.

Nilemdo, which was in-licensed from Esperion Therapeutics in May 2025 alongside Nexlizet, received Health Canada approval in November, with a commercial launch expected in the second quarter of 2026. Keywood said HLS plans to prioritize Nilemdo initially, while Nexlizet remains excluded from Stifel’s valuation pending additional regulatory approvals requested by Health Canada.

Keywood said his favourable view on Nilemdo is supported by strong clinical data and a high degree of overlap with the Vascepa prescriber base, noting that pricing dynamics and historical reimbursement challenges for cardiovascular therapies in Canada remain key constraints.

Stifel estimates that roughly 10% of Canadians have elevated LDL cholesterol, with approximately five per cent of that population considered statin intolerant, implying a core addressable market of about 350,000 patients. Including patients who cannot reach LDL targets on statins alone, Stifel estimates a total potential patient population of roughly 500,000, broadly in line with management’s assessment. Nilemdo’s advantage, Keywood said, lies in its differentiated mechanism of action, which avoids muscle-related side effects commonly associated with statins.

The firm assumes net pricing of approximately $4.50 per day, or about $1,200 annually, broadly in line with current U.S. pricing adjusted for Canadian payor dynamics. Despite the favourable clinical and market backdrop, Stifel is taking an initially conservative stance on uptake, forecasting peak Canadian sales of roughly US$100-million by 2031, representing about 3.5% market penetration. Keywood noted that reimbursement hurdles and HLS’s prior experience with Vascepa temper near-term expectations.

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