HLS Therapeutics. Buy, Sell or Hold?

Stifel analyst Justin Keywood maintained a “Hold” rating on HLS Therapeutics (HLS Therapeutics Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:HLS) while lowering his target price to C$4.45 from C$4.75 following fourth-quarter results that were largely in line with expectations.

In a March 12 report, Keywood said HLS reported Q4 revenue of US$15.2-million, slightly above consensus of US$15.1-million, while Adjusted EBITDA of US$5.7-million was in line with Street forecasts.

Sales of Clozaril, the company’s schizophrenia treatment, declined 3.5% year-over-year to US$10.4-million, while Vascepa revenue fell 0.8% in the quarter but grew 9.1% for full-year 2025.

Keywood noted some signs of stabilization in Clozaril, with management indicating the product declined 0.7% versus its three-year average annual decline of 4.6%, though the company expects low-single-digit declines in 2026.

The analyst said investor focus will likely shift to the launch of NILEMDO, a cholesterol-lowering therapy licensed from Esperion Therapeutics Inc., with private reimbursement expected in Q2 2026 and public reimbursement anticipated by late 2026.

Keywood expects the product to generate about US$1-million in sales in the second half of 2026, with incremental launch investments weighing modestly on earnings in the near term.

“We contend that the risk in HLS’ stock currently rests on NILEMDO/NEXLIZET’s potential to become a solid cash flow-generating asset over the long term amid declines in Clozaril,” Keywood said.

Stifel now forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue of US$58.7-million and Adjusted EBITDA of US$19.6-million for HLS.