Tesla just won a huge price target raise from this analyst

Roth Capital Markets analyst Craig Irwin raised his 12-month price target on Tesla (Tesla Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:TSLA) to US $505.00 from $395.00 while maintaining a “Buy” rating in an Oct. 23 earnings analysis, saying the company remains “a large-cap that trades like an emerging growth stock,” with catalysts expected to drive valuation re-rating through 2026.

“We see abundant positive catalysts and would be buyers on any weakness,” Irwin said. His new target is based on a 15.0× revenue multiple on 2026 estimates, up from 12.5× previously.

Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 results were “essentially in line,” with revenue of US$28.1-billion and adjusted EPS of US$0.50, compared with Roth estimates of US$24.2-billion and US$0.44, and consensus of US$26.5-billion and US$0.56. The company’s non-GAAP automotive gross margin was 15.4%, slightly below Street expectations of 17.4%, while free cash flow of US$4-billion “impressed.” Regulatory credit sales totalled US$417-million, roughly flat year-over-year.

Deliveries reached 497,000 units, ahead of consensus at 456,000, boosted by a pull-forward of U.S. demand ahead of the EV tax credit expiry, new Model 3 and Model Y launches in the U.S., and strong sales of the Model YL in China, where deliveries climbed 33% sequentially. Other regions also performed well, with deliveries up 39% in Other APAC, 28% in North America, and 25% in EMEA.

Irwin said auto margins were stable, benefiting from lower material costs and better cost absorption. While the company’s outlook remains unchanged, he expects its Nov. 6 AGM to act as a positive trading catalyst when 2026 milestones are detailed.

“Abundant milestones are lining up for 2026,” he said, citing volume production of the CyberCab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3, all on track for next year. Tesla now plans to unveil Optimus V3 in the first quarter of 2026, with production by year-end following a modest delay related to its robotic hand assembly.

Tesla continues to expand its FSD and RoboTaxi programs, having launched its RoboTaxi iOS app in the U.S. and Canada, operating fleets in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, with service expected in 8–10 new markets in the coming months. FSD v14 launched in October in the U.S., while European rollout of FSD (Supervised) awaits regulatory approval.

Management maintained its guidance, warning that shifting global trade and fiscal policies could pressure near-term deliveries, though Irwin expects volume gains from the new China Model YL and low-cost vehicle programs could provide upside to consensus.

“Tesla’s execution remains strong, its roadmap is rich with milestones, and we see continued opportunity for valuation expansion as the company enters its next growth cycle,” Irwin said.

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