Calian Group is a buy, this analyst says

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff maintained his “Buy” rating and $58.00 target price on Calian Group (Calian Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CGY) in an Oct. 2 update, saying the company’s latest acquisition supports its defence strategy and that valuation remains attractive relative to peers.

Ottawa-based Calian provides diversified services in defence, health, IT, and learning for government and commercial clients.

Calian announced the acquisition of InField Scientific, a Canadian specialist in electromagnetic environmental effects (E3). Goff described it as “a relatively modest tuck-in acquisition” but said it “reaffirms the Company’s pursuit of tuck-in acquisitions within the Canadian defence market.”

Although financial terms were not disclosed, he estimated the deal value below $15-million, at roughly five times EBITDA, in line with prior transactions.

“The acquisition strengthens Calian’s service capabilities and relationships in the defence vertical,” he said.

Goff sees the impact as neutral but strategically positive, reflecting the company’s continued ability to execute targeted defence-related acquisitions. He expects investor attention to shift toward Calian’s defence growth narrative over the next two to three quarters, supported by active RFPs, a growing backlog, and increasing Canadian military spending tied to NATO commitments.

“We continue to see strong fundamental value where a return to prior growth levels will likely see the shares outperform with growth and support for positive revaluation considerations,” he said. “The military tailwinds will clearly be significant and sustained given NATO commitments.”

Goff remains modestly below consensus for the next two quarters, projecting FQ4/25 and FQ1/26 revenue/EBITDA of $138.1-million/$13.6-million and $138.8-million/$16.5-million, compared with consensus at $143.5-million/$14.4-million and $143.2-million/$15.4-million.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, he forecasts revenue of $580.5-million and EBITDA of $62.5-million, versus consensus at $595.4-million and $65.1-million.

He did not revise his fiscal 2026 model to reflect the InField acquisition but noted these figures may prove conservative and plans to revisit them after Q4 results.

For calendar 2025 and 2026 (C2025/26), Goff forecasts revenue/EBITDA of $760.9-million/$72.8-million and $798.8-million/$86.0-million, respectively. On this basis, Calian trades at 8.7x and 6.9x EV/EBITDA for C2025 and C2026. That compares to 8.0x and 8.4x for business & it services peers, 11.8x and 11.0x for military services peers, and 6.6x and 5.9x for healthcare services peers.

His one-year DCF target of $62.77 per share assumes a 13.3% discount rate, an 8.8x terminal EV/EBITDA multiple, a 7.2% implied free cash flow yield, and a 4.2% perpetual growth rate.

Goff said he expects building financial momentum and pipeline growth to support a positive revaluation over the next two to four quarters, with higher military spending potentially driving forecast upgrades in the second half of fiscal 2026.

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