Is Live Nation stock a buy?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Eric Handler maintained a “Buy” rating and $164 price target on Live Nation (Live Nation Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:LYV) in a June 26 update, despite lowering his second-quarter estimates after the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival was cut short by severe weather.

Handler said the cancellation of more than two days of performances would weigh on Q2 adjusted operating income, now forecast below consensus, but emphasized that it was a one-time event. He said demand for concerts remains strong and reaffirmed his outlook for double-digit AOI growth in 2025 and beyond.

“We are lowering our revenue and AOI estimates to $6.905bn (+15%) and $748mn (+4.5%), respectively, from $6.969bn and $804mn,” he said. “Our revenue projection remains slightly above consensus, but our AOI view is below the Street at $772mn. This revision is largely attributable to the cancellation of 2+ days of the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival.

The four-day festival, scheduled for June 12–15, was cancelled midway through Friday due to severe storms and flooding. Live Nation is offering full refunds for all Friday to Sunday single-day tickets, 4-day passes, and 4-day camping accommodations.

“The company is fully insured for the costs of the festival, although payment may take a few months,” Handler said. “The financial impact from the Bonnaroo cancellation will mostly be seen for AOI in the Concerts and Sponsorships & Advertising segments. In addition, we have modestly reduced our 2Q Ticketing results due to show timing, but we are adding to 3Q what is being taken out of the current quarter.”

Roth Capital modestly lowered its 2025 AOI forecast for Live Nation to $2.371 billion (+10.5%) from $2.383 billion, with much of the Q2 reduction shifted to the second half of the year. Handler said Live Nation continues to benefit from strong global demand for live events.

Handler thinks that Live Nation will generate $2.37 billion in Adjusted EBITDA on $26.1 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, slightly below his prior estimates of $2.38-billionillion and $26.1-billion, respectively. He expects those numbers to improve to $2.640-billion in Adjusted EBITDA on $28.5-billion in revenue in fiscal 2026, down modestly from his previous forecast of $2.65-billion and $28.6-billion.

Handler said the DOJ antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation is in the discovery phase, with all discovery due by October 30 and fact depositions to be completed by June 27. He added that the Fair Ticketing Act of 2025 is progressing in Congress but currently appears stalled.

“The House of Representatives passed its version of the bill on April 29 (a very favourable 409-15 vote),” he said. “The Senate version of the bill has passed through the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, but a formal vote date has not been set. This bill, which is supported by Live Nation, is intended to: (1) mandate all-in, upfront pricing; (2) ban deceptive speculative ticketing practices; and (3) assess the use of illegal software bots.”

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