Analyst explains why Avante (TSXV:XX) is worth more than you think

Beacon Securities analyst Gabriel Leung maintained a “Buy” rating and C$2.25 target on Avante (Avante Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:XX) in a May 26 update, saying a comparable takeout in the security sector provides a positive valuation data point.

Toronto-based Avante provides high-end security systems and services for residential, largely GTA-based, and commercial customers.

Leung pointed to SSC Security Services’ all-cash go-private transaction with Allied Universal, which values SSC at a fully diluted enterprise value of about $79.5-million. The $4.4075-per-share offer represents a 119% premium to SSC’s previous closing price.

On valuation, Leung said the transaction implies 0.6x last-quarter annualized sales and 18.7x last-quarter annualized EBITDA. Applying the 18.7x EBITDA multiple to his fiscal 2027 Avante forecast implies a value of about $2.60 per share, compared with Avante’s recent price of about $1.34.

“In our opinion, the SSC transaction is interesting for Avante for a couple of reasons,” Leung said. “First, we believe it provides a positive valuation data point for Avante. Second, it reinforces our view that the security industry remains very acquisitive.”

Leung said Avante’s customer base and product portfolio could make it attractive to a larger industry player seeking exposure to high-net-worth residential and international security markets.

Leung expects Avante to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $2.5-million on revenue of $36.3-million in fiscal 2026, improving to $3.5-million on revenue of $41.3-million in fiscal 2027.

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