The sky is the limit for MDA Space, this analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained a “Buy” rating and $73.00 target on MDA Space (MDA Space Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MDA) in a May 13 update, saying new U.S. defence estimates highlight the scale of the company’s potential opportunity.

Stanley said the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate for Golden Dome at US$1.2-trillion over 20 years includes US$172-billion for satellites alone. MDA was shortlisted in January to compete for task orders under the SHIELD program, the main funding vehicle for Golden Dome.

“While MDA’s potential participation extends well beyond satellites, this illustrates the potential market opportunity for just one product line,” Stanley said.

He said MDA’s expanded Montreal satellite production facility, with nameplate capacity of about 400 satellites per year, positions the company as a high-volume producer. While U.S. companies may have the inside track as primes, Stanley said MDA’s recent Airbus contract and existing work with U.S. primes show it can participate as a subcontractor.

Stanley said MDA’s pipeline doubled year-over-year to $40-billion in March, with much of the growth driven by defence. He also said acquisitions could help strengthen MDA’s U.S. and European presence, supported by more than $1.2-billion in available liquidity.

Despite the stock making new all-time highs, Stanley said MDA still trades at 18x his fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA estimate, a steep discount to space peers Intuitive Machines and Redwire.

Stanley expects MDA to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $343-million on revenue of $1.80-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to $409-million on revenue of $2.04-billion in fiscal 2027.

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