ATB Capital still bullish on Bitfarms

ATB Capital Markets is sticking with its bullish view on Bitfarms (Bitfarms Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:BITF), maintaining an Outperform rating and a $3.75 price target as the Bitcoin miner ramps up high-performance computing ambitions and expands its U.S. infrastructure.

ATB analyst Martin Toner maintained his rating and target based on the company’s stronger-than-expected Q1 hash rate, growing liquidity, and tangible progress toward its high-performance computing (HPC) and AI strategy.

“BITF exited Q1 with an operational hash rate of 19.5 EH/s, an increase of from 12.8 EH/s in Q4, driven by the deployment of miners at its Stronghold sites,” Toner said. “The 19.5 EH/s hash rate to exit the quarter came in above our estimate of 18.6 EH/s. In Q1, BITF mined 694 BTC, below our estimate of 814 BTC mined for the quarter. Bitfarms Treasury at March month-end was 1,140 Bitcoin, representing $111-million based on current BTC prices. Total liquidity as of Q1 end was $132-million, including $39-million in cash.”

While Bitcoin production fell short of expectations due to higher network difficulty, Toner said the company’s improving infrastructure and cash position ($132 million in liquidity at quarter-end) support its near-term growth goals.

“BITF has hired an SVP of HPC (to help lead AI go-to-market initiatives) and an SVP of Infrastructure (to lead the development of BITF’s PJM portfolio),” Toner said. “The $85-million sale of Yguazu in January 2025 enables the company to direct more resources towards its HPC/AI initiatives, and during the quarter, BITF raised $50-million via its ATM program last quarter to help further finance its HPC/AI aspirations. BITF continues to run feasibility assessments with its strategic partners at its Pennsylvania facilities (including Sharon, Panther Creek and Scrubgrass), with results expected to be received in Q2/25. Management has also highlighted the advantages of BITF’s Pennsylvania sites, including access to cost-effective energy, robust fibre connectivity, and proximity to major metro areas.”

Toner noted that Bitfarms has secured a private debt facility of up to $300-million to jumpstart development of its high-performance computing (HPC) project at the Panther Creek site in Pennsylvania, a move he says strengthens the company’s financing position as it pivots toward AI infrastructure.

“We view the deal positively, as it should give investors confidence that the Company is able to raise debt capital to fund its HPC ambitions, reducing BITF’s cost of capital, which, based on the current stock price, is quite high.”

Toner expects Bitfarms to generate $194.0 million in revenue and $422.4 million in adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2025. He forecasts those figures will shift to $525.7 million in revenue and $228.1 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2026.

Overall, the rating and target are based on Toner’s sum-of-the-parts valuation model, which applies a 4.5x multiple to Bitfarms’ 2026 EBITDA and includes $200 million in estimated HPC value, assuming a 20% probability of building out 100MW of capacity.

“Our 12-month price target is based on 4.5x BITF’s 2026 EBITDA (previously 5.5x), and $200mm of HPC value given an assumed 20% probability of developing 100MW at a value of $10mm per MW.”

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