5N Plus: this small Canadian stock is a big supplier to First Solar

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Daniel Lavoie says new U.S. trade measures on polysilicon and related solar products are an incremental positive for 5N Plus (5N PLUS Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:VNP).

In an Aug. 7 update, Lavoie reiterated his “Buy” rating and $44 target on 5N Plus.

President Donald Trump has signed a Section 232 action covering polysilicon and derivative products, establishing minimum import prices across the crystalline-silicon solar supply chain. The measures include a $21.00 per kilogram minimum import price for polysilicon and a $0.38 per watt minimum import price for finished solar modules.

Lavoie said the module price is particularly relevant for First Solar, whose cadmium telluride thin-film technology does not rely on polysilicon and sits outside the conventional crystalline-silicon supply chain targeted by the measures.

First Solar is 5N Plus’s largest customer and represents about 34% of trailing-12-month revenue. It has been expanding its U.S. manufacturing footprint under a long-term supply agreement with 5N Plus, including a 50% increase in contracted semiconductor-material volumes for 2025 and 2026, followed by another 25% increase for 2027 and 2028.

Lavoie said recent First Solar U.S. bookings have been in the mid-30-cent-per-watt range, suggesting the new $0.38 per watt floor could reduce the pricing advantage of low-cost imported silicon modules.

The analyst said the policy does not change his near-term estimates, but it improves visibility around First Solar’s U.S. utilization, future bookings and potential domestic capacity additions.

That should support the longer-term demand outlook for 5N Plus’s specialty semiconductor materials, Lavoie said.

He expects 5N Plus to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $109-million on revenue of $487-million in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $136-million on revenue of $554-million in fiscal 2027.

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