Should you sell your Capricor Therapeutics stock?

Roth Capital analyst Boobalan Pachaiyappan lowered his target on Capricor Therapeutics (Capricor Therapeutics Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:CAPR) to $38.00 from $43.00 in a May 14 report, while maintaining a “Buy” rating, after removing an expected $80-million NS Pharma milestone and pushing his U.S. Deramiocel launch assumption to 2027.

Pachaiyappan said he remains optimistic that Deramiocel will receive FDA approval by Aug. 22, 2026, or earlier, and that Capricor could sell a priority review voucher in the fourth quarter for at least $150-million. But he said legal action against NS Pharma has created uncertainty around commercialization timing and distribution.

“Capricor’s claim that NS Pharma refused to address its concerns and demanded that the company cede control of its regulatory relationships and commercial identity as a condition of resolution strongly suggests NS Pharma has gained an upper hand, in our view,” Pachaiyappan said.

He said Capricor should ultimately prevail, but the cost and timing remain unclear. Pachaiyappan said he can no longer assume a fourth-quarter 2026 U.S. launch because of the legal overhang, and believes commercialization in 2027 is more realistic.

Capricor reported a Q1 net loss of $33.9-million, or $0.59 per share, wider than Roth’s forecast for a $27.6-million loss. The company ended the quarter with $279-million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, which management said provides runway into the fourth quarter of 2027.

Pachaiyappan’s revised DCF assumes FDA approval in Q3 2026, a $150-million PRV sale, a 30% flat royalty rate for U.S. Deramiocel commercialization and a 2027 launch.

Catalysts include a potential advisory committee update, FDA approval, receipt and sale of the PRV, resolution of the NS Pharma litigation and a potential U.S. launch in 2027.

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