Shorters won’t take down Capricor Therapeutics, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Boobalan Pachaiyappan said in a Nov. 25 report that Capricor Therapeutics’ (Capricor Therapeutics Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:CAPR) sharp decline on Nov. 24 — a 19% drop versus a 3% gain for the S&P’s biotech ETF XBI — was driven by a short seller’s note that questioned the profile of Deramiocel ahead of upcoming Phase 3 HOPE-3 results.

Capricor, based in San Diego, is developing cell and exosome-based therapies for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Pachaiyappan reiterated a “Buy” rating and $13.00 price target, saying the market reaction appeared disconnected from the underlying data and management’s disclosures.

He said Capricor’s CFO AJ Bergmann pushed back strongly on the short report, calling it “false and misleading” and emphasizing that the company remains blinded to Phase 3 results, which are expected in 4Q25. Management also reiterated its confidence in Deramiocel’s potential utility in DMD.

Pachaiyappan said that demonstrating both skeletal-muscle and cardiac benefits in HOPE-3 “may be an uphill task,” but noted that Phase 2b results showed a 107% slowing of cardiac disease progression over 12 months. He said that, at minimum, evidence of cardiac improvement could provide a basis for arguing for regulatory flexibility, particularly for the DMD cardiomyopathy population, a U.S. market of roughly 10,000 patients.

His valuation is based on a DCF analysis using a 55% probability of approval, a 12% discount rate, and 0% terminal growth, yielding an equity value of $581-million. The analyst models a potential U.S. launch in 4Q26, with exclusivity extending to 2039, and does not include ex-U.S. revenue due to limited visibility.

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