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Neal Gilmer of Haywood Capital Markets reiterated a “Buy” rating and $8.00 price target on High Tide (High Tide Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:HITI) following first-quarter 2026 results, while modestly adjusting his forward estimates.

In a report following discussions with management, Gilmer said he has slightly lowered his 2026 forecasts to better reflect seasonal trends and margin dynamics that carry into 2027, but remains positive on the company’s outlook.

“In our opinion, High Tide has demonstrated the strong retail prowess to continue to be the leader in Canada,” he said. “We recommend investors have exposure based on its revenue growth profile and positive EBITDA and cash flow.”

High Tide reported Q1 revenue of $178.3-million, up 25.2% year-over-year and above Haywood’s $174.0-million estimate, with Adjusted EBITDA of $11.5-million in line with expectations. Gross margins were 24.9%.

The company generated $2.9-million in free cash flow in the quarter and $16.8-million over the past four quarters, which Gilmer described as an important inflection point as the business increasingly funds its own growth.

The analyst said the company’s retail segment continues to perform steadily, with same-store sales up 0.5% year-over-year and brick-and-mortar revenue accounting for 84% of total sales, rising 10.3% year-over-year.

International operations are also gaining traction, driven by the Remexian acquisition. The segment contributed 14% of revenue and grew 155% sequentially, with sales of 2.6 tonnes in February generating $12-million in revenue at roughly 20% margins. Market share of German imports increased to 10.3%, up from 6.5% in the prior quarter.

Gilmer said continued momentum in Germany, along with potential expansion into new markets such as the U.K., could support growth into the back half of 2026.

He now expects High Tide to generate $716.1-million in revenue and $53.9-million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026, improving to $800.2-million in revenue and $74.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027.

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