This analyst just raised his price target on Calian Group

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff raised his price target on Calian Group (Calian Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CGY) to $94.00 from $84.00 while reiterating his “Buy” rating, citing growing defence spending and improving long-term demand visibility.

In a March 9 earnings update, Goff said Calian is well-positioned to benefit from structural increases in Canadian defence investment.

“Our move calls for a further, positive sector-driven re-rating as defence spending tailwinds improve long-term demand visibility and financial momentum builds,” he said. “We view Calian as a high-quality company, exceptionally well positioned to leverage the paradigm shift in the Canadian Government’s commitment to building a vibrant self-contained defence supply ecosystem.”

Goff noted the stock has already gained about 38% over the past three months as investor sentiment toward defence spending improved and the company delivered two consecutive quarterly earnings beats.

He said consensus forecasts may still underestimate Calian’s growth potential.

“We believe consensus forecasts for F2026 and beyond leave upside to organic outperformance,” he said.

The target increase reflects higher valuation multiples applied to the company’s longer-term earnings outlook. Goff’s new $94 price target is based on 9.5 times and 8.6 times projected 2027 and 2028 EV/EBITDA multiples, up from his previous assumptions of 8.4 times and 7.6 times.

Goff said the Canadian government’s recently announced Defence Industrial Strategy is expected to provide meaningful support for domestic defence contractors.

The strategy outlines an $82-billion defence reinvestment program and a “build-partner-buy” framework that aims to source roughly 70% of procurement spending from Canadian suppliers while also targeting a 50% increase in military exports.

Goff believes Calian could emerge as a key beneficiary of the policy shift.

“Calian’s longstanding contracts with the Canadian and NATO governments, coupled with its full domestic manufacturing and software capabilities, support its strong candidacy to be nominated a Canadian Defence Champion,” he said.

Under that framework, companies could gain increased access to government contracts, funding and export opportunities tied to NATO partners.

Calian reorganized its operations into two divisions, Essential Industries and Defence & Space, with the Defence & Space segment now representing about 67% of total revenue. The unit generated approximately $520-million in revenue with a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin in fiscal 2025.

Goff said the company’s backlog and contract momentum already reflect stronger military demand. Calian signed roughly $1.1-billion in new contracts during fiscal 2025, supporting a year-end backlog of $1.4-billion, with about 71% tied to defence customers in Canada and Europe.

Goff forecasts Calian will generate $90.9-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $856.9-million in fiscal 2026. He expects those figures to increase to $105.1-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $942.6-million in fiscal 2027, with potential upside if the company wins additional defence contracts.

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