Buy this pot stock ahead of Thursday’s earnings, analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley is maintaining his “Buy” rating and C$5.00 price target on Curaleaf Holdings (Curaleaf Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CURA) after the company closed what he believes is the largest debt offering in U.S. cannabis to date.

Curaleaf, a vertically integrated cannabis operator with operations in the U.S., Europe and Australasia, announced it has completed a US$500-million private placement of 11.5% senior secured three-year notes maturing in February 2029. The notes were issued at par and the company has redeemed its remaining US$457-million of senior secured notes due December 2026.

Management previously described the offering as “meaningfully oversubscribed,” with participation from 10 first-time cannabis investors in addition to existing lenders.

“We view the development positively, as it derisks the balance sheet and frees up senior management time to focus on growth,” Stanley said.

While the maturity is modestly shorter than recent refinancings completed by other major U.S. MSOs, Stanley notes that potential progress on U.S. rescheduling could lower Curaleaf’s cost of debt over time. The terms also allow for incremental note issuance subject to leverage covenants and up to US$100-million in senior bank financing.

Stanley also pointed to renewed attention on the German medical cannabis market following Organigram’s planned acquisition of Sanity Group. Germany represents the bulk of Curaleaf’s international segment, which generated US$46-million in Q3/25 revenue, up 46% year-over-year. Organigram cited a €2-billion German market in 2025 with roughly 1% patient penetration, suggesting substantial long-term growth potential.

Curaleaf reports fourth-quarter results after market close on February 26. The company previously guided to at least US$330-million in Q4 revenue, ahead of Stanley’s prior US$324-million estimate and consensus at US$326-million. He is forecasting Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of US$65-million versus consensus at US$66-million and operating cash flow of US$29-million, implying approximately US$133-million for fiscal 2025.

Stanley estimates Curaleaf will generate US$262-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$1,275-million in fiscal 2026, improving to US$332-million in EBITDA on revenue of US$1,385-million in fiscal 2027.

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