Should you sell your Intermap stock?

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained a “Buy” rating on Intermap Technologies (Intermap Technologies Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:IMP) but cut his target price to $3.00 from $5.50 after the company withdrew its fiscal 2025 guidance and reset expectations for 2026 amid a delay in a key Indonesian contract decision.

Stanley said the reduction reflects downward estimate revisions following Intermap’s disclosure that the decision date for Phase II work under Indonesia’s One Map program has been pushed back by roughly two weeks. Given the importance of that contract, management withdrew its 2025 outlook and introduced what Stanley described as conservative initial guidance for 2026, prompting Beacon to reset forecasts pending further contract clarity.

Intermap said the project’s website now shows an “Issue Notice of Intention to Award” date of Feb. 10. Management indicated the delay is intended to allow additional time for review and coordination, while emphasizing that the size and scope of the program remain unchanged.

“While the F2025 guidance withdrawal is a setback, the stock was likely already partially pricing that in,” Stanley said, noting the absence of contract win news through mid-December and softer results earlier in the year. He added that a one- to two-month delay on a project of this scale should not, on its own, be a major long-term valuation driver.

Beacon now expects Intermap to generate an Adjusted EBITDA loss of about $1-million on revenue of roughly $13-million in fiscal 2025. For fiscal 2026, Stanley forecasts Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $9.6-million on revenue of about $35-million, implying an EBITDA margin of roughly 28%. Those figures represent a sharp reset from Beacon’s October view, when Stanley had expected Intermap to generate about US$8-million of Adjusted EBITDA on US$30-million of revenue in fiscal 2025, improving to US$21-million on US$56 million of revenue in fiscal 2026.

Stanley said the new 2026 guidance establishes a “very reachable bar.” As previously outlined in Beacon’s September note, the Indonesia One Map contract calls for a 15% advance on contract value. Should Intermap win all four lots, Stanley said the advances alone could allow the company to approach or meet its 2026 guidance, with additional contract wins supporting upward revisions to both guidance and estimates.

“We believe our prior $56-million revenue and $21-million EBITDA forecast remains achievable, but prudence demands that we adjust for the new guidance,” he said.

At current levels, Stanley said Intermap trades at about 8.9 times Beacon’s revised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast, representing a steep discount to peers. By comparison, BlackSky Technology trades at roughly 31 times EBITDA and Planet Labs at a substantially higher multiple. Beacon values Intermap at 14 times 2026E EBITDA, which still implies a meaningful discount to peers.

While the stock was down about 14% on heavy volume following the announcement, he said shares appear to have found technical support around $2.00, a level that has previously held and now coincides with a roughly 50% retracement of the June 2024 to September 2025 rally.

Intermap is a Colorado-based geospatial intelligence company that provides high-resolution 3D terrain data and Earth-surface models for aviation, telecommunications, defence, government and other commercial customers.

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