Is Intermap Technologies a buy right now?

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained his “Buy” rating and C$3.00 target on Intermap Technologies  (Intermap Technologies Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:IMP) ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter results due Tuesday after the close, saying the release could provide important updates on Indonesia, national mapping opportunities, insurance and defence.

Stanley said he is looking for fourth-quarter revenue of $3.9-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $0.8-million, with roughly half of revenue expected to come from remaining work tied to the original US$20-million Phase I contract in Indonesia. He noted the only alternative published estimate implies a much stronger quarter, at $9.0-million in revenue and $4.9-million in Adjusted EBITDA, based on a fiscal 2025 forecast last updated in December.

He said management’s updated outlook will be a key focus after Intermap withdrew its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance of $30-million to $35-million in mid-December and introduced fiscal 2026 guidance in the same range. Stanley said he will also be watching for commentary on additional Indonesian work, other national mapping programs, and progress in the company’s insurance and defence businesses.

On Indonesia, Stanley said the award timeline for the next phase of the One Map program continues to shift. He noted Intermap has been working on Phase I since securing the $20-million contract in January 2024, while the next request for bids covers four lots totaling 1.6 million square kilometres, nearly nine times the 180,000 square kilometres in Phase I. Intermap disclosed with its third-quarter results that it had submitted bids on all four lots.

Stanley said the key notice-of-intention-to-award date has now been pushed back multiple times, moving from January 21 to February 10, then February 26, March 5, March 30, April 9, April 27 and May 5, before briefly being pulled forward to April 24 and then pushed again to April 29. He said the repeated delays are outside management’s control, but they underline the risk of having one customer account for such a large portion of expected revenue.

On valuation, Stanley said Intermap now trades at 5.3x his fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast, which he said represents a 93% discount to BlackSky Technology at 77x after that stock fell 17% on Friday, and a discount of more than 99% to Planet Labs at more than 1,140x. He said potential catalysts include Tuesday’s results and commentary, contract wins led by Indonesia, M&A activity and a possible U.S. exchange listing.

Stanley said Intermap should post a fiscal 2025 Adjusted EBITDA loss of $1-million on revenue of $13-million, improving to $10-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $35-million in fiscal 2026.

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