Should you sell your Kinaxis stock?

In a Nov. 5 note, ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained a “Sector Perform” rating and $210.00 target price on Kinaxis (Kinaxis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:KXS), saying the company’s third-quarter results “point to a turn” with stronger recurring revenue momentum and record profitability.

Kinaxis reported Q3 2025 revenue of US$134.6-million, up 10.7% year over year, compared with consensus of US$136.4-million, reflecting a small miss on Subscription Term License revenue. SaaS revenue rose 17.0% to US$92.0-million, ahead of US$89.7-million consensus, while gross profit of US$85.9-million and gross margin of 63.9% were just below forecasts but improved from 62.8% a year earlier.

The company delivered record Adjusted EBITDA of US$33.9-million, a 25% margin, beating consensus of US$33.2-million and rising 13% year over year.

Toner highlighted that annual recurring revenue grew 17%, about 200 basis points higher than the prior quarter, with incremental ARR of US$16.0-million, double that of Q3 2024.

“We view the SaaS growth and EBITDA margin guidance raises as reflective of growing demand and improving efficiency,” he said.

Kinaxis maintained its FY25 revenue guidance of US$535- to US$550-million, implying 11%-14% growth, while raising Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 24%-26% from 23%-25%, and FY25 SaaS revenue growth to 15%-17% from 13%-15%. Subscription Term License guidance was trimmed to US$15- to US$16-million to reflect the company’s shift toward SaaS.

Kinaxis CEO Bob Courteau said record new business bookings and accelerated ARR growth “allow us to confidently target even stronger results for fiscal 2025.” He said that Kinaxis’s AI-powered Maestro Agents, now deployed with major global customers, are beginning to create new revenue streams and enhance planner productivity.

“Our AI orchestration message is resonating well with global brands, installed customers, and partners looking to work with a leader in the supply chain space,” Courteau said.

Toner said he remains constructive on Kinaxis’s trajectory, noting that stronger ARR trends, improved SaaS mix, and disciplined expense management position the company for continued margin expansion and revenue acceleration through 2025.

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