Tilray wins huge price target raise from this analyst

Roth Capital Markets analyst Bill Kirk said in an Oct. 10 report that Tilray Brands (Tilray Brands Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:TLRY) delivered fiscal Q1/F26 results that exceeded revenue expectations but came in slightly light on profitability as export permitting delays in Portugal continued to weigh on international sales.

Kirk maintained his “Neutral” rating and raised his 12-month target price to US$2.00 from US$0.60.

Tilray reported net sales of US$209.5-million, ahead of consensus at US$205.5-million but down from US$224.5-million in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was US$10.2-million, below consensus of US$10.8-million and down from US$27.6-million in Q4/F25. Gross margin of 27.4% declined 240 basis points year over year and 270 sequentially, largely due to lower-margin international sales. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of US$62–72-million, which compares to consensus at approximately US$64.9-million and a fiscal 2025 base of US$55-million.

“Permitting issues in Portugal appear to be improving, with Tilray receiving the same number of licenses over the past two weeks as it had in the previous two months,” Kirk said.

He noted that while those disruptions will also affect Q2 results, for which he forecasts Adjusted EBITDA of US$7.2-million on US$209.4-million in sales, the company’s core Canadian business remains resilient.

“The Canadian adult-use segment led the quarter, with volumes up 6.5% and pricing up 2% versus industry averages of -1.3%,” he said.

Segment results showed cannabis revenue of US$64.1-million, up from US$58.4-million in Q4/F25 and US$57.2-million in Q1/F25, offsetting weaker international sales, which fell to US$13.4-million from US$22.4-million in the prior quarter. Cannabis gross margin dropped to 36.1% from 43.7% in Q4. Beverage revenue of US$55.7-million was flat year over year but down sequentially from US$65.6-million as the business continued SKU rationalization. Beverage margins were 38.3%, down slightly from 41.0% last year. Distribution revenue remained steady at US$74.0-million, compared with US$74.1-million in Q4/F25.

Tilray posted positive net income of US$1.5-million, supported by tax receipts of US$2.3-million and continued cost management. Kirk said the company’s SKU rationalization and ongoing efficiency initiatives are improving profitability even as international logistics temporarily constrain growth.

Kirk said Tilray should generate US$60.1-million in Adjusted EBITDA on US$862.8-million in revenue in fiscal 2026, compared with prior estimates of US$64.0-million on US$868.1-million.

He added that upside for the stock “will be predominantly determined by U.S. legislative outcomes,” noting that Tilray shares have risen about 230% in the past three months compared with a 7% gain in the S&P 500.

“Tilray’s exposure to the U.S. would depend heavily on how regulatory changes are structured and its ability to compete with established players,” Kirk said. “Still, the company’s core fundamentals are improving, supported by a stable cannabis pricing environment, improving beer profitability, and a favourable supply-demand balance in Germany.”

-30-