Uber earns price target raise at Roth Capital

Roth Capital Markets analyst Rohit Kulkarni raised his price target on Uber (Uber Technologies Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:UBER) to $110 ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings, set to be released before market open on Wednesday, August 6.

In a July 14 earnings preview, Kulkarni said the new target is based on 20 times estimated 2026 EBITDA, with recent robotaxi developments helping support Uber’s valuation multiple.

“While we think there may be upside to 2Q bookings, buyside expectations for 3Q guidance may cap near-term opportunity,” he said. “We remain medium- and long-term holders of Uber shares, and we’d be incremental buyers on weakness.”

Kulkarni said that market expectations for Uber’s second-quarter results appear modest, with flat gross bookings estimates lagging behind projected growth in revenue and EBITDA.

“For the past 12 months, Street EPS estimates for UBER’s 2Q25, 3Q25, and FY25 have trended positively; however, growth has been slower than the rise in consensus estimates for rideshare and delivery,” he said. “Since Jan 2024, Street estimates for UBER’s 2025 revenue, EBITDA, and GBs have grown by +3.3%, +13.1%, and -0.2%, respectively. Over the past 90 days, estimates have faced slight upward revisions.”

Kulkarni also noted that Uber’s valuation appears high compared to historical trends. “Rideshare consensus valuation multiples have seen continued positive revisions over the past 12 months while delivery EV/EBITDA has declined,” he said. “Compared to median 3-yr valuation multiples, UBER shares are trading at a premium in EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales. Since the day following its 1Q25 earnings report, UBER’s share price has increased +16.1% while the S&P 500 has risen +10.0% over the same period.”

Kulkarni estimates that Uber will generate $8.94-billion in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $50.62-billion in fiscal 2025. He expects those figures to improve to $11.75-billion in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $58.37-billion in fiscal 2026.

He said that Street expectations for Uber’s second and third quarter results appear reasonable, with consensus estimates tracking near the midpoint of the company’s guidance.

For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the Street expects gross bookings of $46.30-billion, up 15.9% year-over-year, compared to Uber’s high-end guidance of $47.75-billion. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $2.10-billion, up 33.8%, versus high-end guidance of $2.12-billion. For the third quarter, the Street estimates gross bookings of $47.38-billion, a 16.6% increase year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA of $2.22-billion, up 31.3%.

Kulkarni also highlighted several recent developments. On June 22, Alphabet’s Waymo launched its rides in Atlanta exclusively through Uber, and the company updated its vehicle count in Austin to 100. In April, Delta Airlines shifted its rideshare partnership from Lyft to Uber, allowing SkyMiles members to earn miles on both rides and deliveries, with integration into the Fly Delta app.

Additionally, Uber expanded its Family Profiles feature to include senior accounts

“As part of Uber’s Family Profiles feature, and similar to Lyft Silver, senior accounts offer a simplified UX and flexible payment options, including support from family members and Medicare Flex for medical rides,” he said. “At launch, the feature was available in 10 countries, including the U.S.”

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