This crypto stock just won a big price target raise

In a Jan. 19 report, ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Riot Platforms (Riot Platforms Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:RIOT) and raised his one-year price target to US$ 30.00 from US$25.00, following what he described as a transformational step in the company’s strategic pivot toward high-performance computing and AI infrastructure.

Before market open on Jan. 16, Riot announced the acquisition of land and its first data-centre lease with AMD at its Rockdale, Texas site. Toner said the agreement marks a key milestone as Riot transitions from a pure-play Bitcoin miner to a digital infrastructure provider serving the rapidly expanding AI ecosystem.

“The low capex requirement, lack of large financing requirement, delivery time and capital efficiency of the deal positions RIOT as a lower leverage play in the HPC DC space, an interesting development…”

Under the agreement, Riot will deliver an initial 25 MW of critical IT load at Rockdale, representing US$311-million in total contract revenue and an expected US$25-million in annual NOI from the initial deployment alone.

“The low capex requirement, lack of large financing requirement, delivery time and capital efficiency of the deal positions RIOT as a lower leverage play in the HPC DC space, an interesting development,” Toner said.

While the implied value per MW is below some peers, he noted Riot’s estimated US$3.6-million per MW capex suggests the company can reach NOI with less dilution, supporting meaningful shareholder value creation.

Toner also highlighted Riot’s recent move to transition from a ground lease to fee-simple ownership of 200 acres at Rockdale for US$96-million, eliminating roughly US$130-million in future lease obligations. The site provides access to 700 MW of interconnected power capacity with on-site substation infrastructure, forming the foundation for a long-term expansion runway. ATB estimates a fully developed data-centre portfolio could ultimately generate between US$1.6-billion and US$2.1-billion in total portfolio NOI.

On capital deployment, Riot has earmarked roughly US$400-million for near-term growth initiatives, including the land acquisition, about US$90-million for the initial AMD buildout, and US$214-million for core-and-shell development at Corsicana. Toner said the company’s ability to retrofit at a relatively low cost per MW underscores its capital efficiency advantage.

Liquidity remains a key differentiator, in Toner’s view. Riot holds approximately US$2.1-billion in total liquidity, including 18,005 Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Management plans to fund project equity largely through selective Bitcoin sales, with only an illustrative 3,134 BTC required to cover current development costs. With Bitcoin valued at about US$96,929 per coin as of mid-January 2026, Toner said the balance sheet provides ample flexibility to layer in additional debt financing as the data-centre roadmap scales.

ATB’s revised US$30.00 price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts and multiples framework, anchored on a 7.0x multiple applied to Riot’s 2026 EBITDA (before fair-value adjustments).

Toner said Riot should generate about US$145-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$657-million in fiscal 2025, improving to roughly US$322-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$835-million in fiscal 2026.

-30-