Analyst raises target on MDA Space to street-high $60.00

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley reiterated a “Buy” rating on MDA Space (MDA Space Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MDA) and raised his price target to a street-high $60.00 from $50.00 in a Jan. 29 report, citing valuation support from York Space Systems’ newly priced IPO and improving technical momentum in MDA shares.

Stanley said York Space Systems’ upsized IPO, priced at the top end of its range, reinforces the valuation gap between U.S.-listed space assets and MDA. York priced its US$629-million offering at US$34 per share, upsizing the deal to 18.5-million shares, with Bloomberg reporting the transaction was “multiple times oversubscribed.” At that level, Stanley estimates York carries an enterprise value of roughly US$4.0-billion, or more than 11x estimated 2025 revenue.

Applying a comparable multiple to Beacon’s fiscal 2025 revenue forecast for MDA implies a per-share value of $125+, Stanley said. He raised MDA’s valuation multiple to 20x fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA from 17x, driving the higher target. Even at that level, he said MDA would still trade at a 45%–58% discount to the 36x–48x EBITDA multiples assigned to its closest peers.

Stanley said that MDA is already EBITDA and EPS positive, while peers such as Lunar and Redwire are not expected to reach EBITDA profitability until fiscal 2026, with only Lunar forecast to turn EPS positive by fiscal 2027. He said peer trading multiples would support an MDA valuation in the $82–$110 range, with more liquid comparables implying even higher levels.

From a technical perspective, Stanley said MDA recently broke above resistance near $38.50, leaving $44–$45 as the next key level. While momentum indicators are now overbought, he said recent pullbacks have been brief and represent opportunity, noting the stock is now outperforming the space-focused UFO ETF, where MDA is the third-largest holding.

Beyond York, Stanley pointed to potential upside from broader sector catalysts. He noted recent media reports suggesting a possible SpaceX IPO as early as mid-June, which, at valuations discussed publicly, would imply materially higher sales multiples across the space sector. He also highlighted MDA’s newly announced memorandum of understanding with Hanwha Systems, which contemplates collaboration on South Korea’s sovereign low-Earth-orbit defence constellation using MDA’s AURORA software-defined satellites. Stanley said the agreement underscores growing international demand for sovereign satellite capabilities and could open additional defence opportunities for MDA.

Stanley forecasts Adjusted EBITDA of $316-million on revenue of $1.60-billion in fiscal 2025, rising to $347-million on $1.79-billion of revenue in fiscal 2026.

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