Should you sell your Tesla stock?

With Tesla (Tesla Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:TSLA) set to report second-quarter results, Roth Capital Markets analyst Craig Irwin says investor focus may shift from EV demand concerns to progress on the company’s emerging robotics and autonomous vehicle programs.

In a July 22 earnings preview, Irwin said, “Tesla’s emerging robotics and autonomous business are at an early stage where catalysts are easily defined and then accomplished, leaving management in strong control over the narrative. Timing for the low-cost vehicle and the outlook for sustained auto credit sales should outweigh possible weak vehicle deliveries guidance.” Roth maintains a “Buy” rating and $395 price target.

Tesla will report its second-quarter 2025 results after markets close on Wednesday, July 23, followed by an investor call.

Roth is forecasting Tesla’s Q2 2025 revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS at $23.6-billion, $0.41, and $0.41 per share, slightly above the consensus estimates of $22.2-billion and $0.39. Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in the quarter, just below the prior consensus of 387,180, but up from 336,681 in Q1 2025 and down from 443,956 in Q2 2024.

“Tesla is a large-cap company that often trades like an emerging growth company,” Irwin said. “Catalysts will play a primary role in valuation, in our opinion, as investors discount the longer-term served opportunity and projected earnings power. We see abundant positive catalysts, and we would be buyers on any weakness.”

He said the CyberTaxi launch in Austin is proceeding as expected, with updates on fleet expansion, new markets, and engineering takeaways anticipated.

“The 20 CyberTaxis now operating in Austin have human safety monitors onboard for the pilot phase to ensure the most stringent safety compliance,” he said. “Growth of the geofence implies confidence. Elon Musk has confirmed the CyberTaxi will use teleoperation engineers similarly to Waymo, where there are two to three humans per Waymo vehicle monitoring safety and taking control when necessary to correct navigation or ensure safety.”

Although Tesla has received initial approval from the California Public Utilities Commission, additional permits from both it and DMV are still pending. This means California trials could begin with a human safety monitor onboard. Arizona is also being considered.

Irwin noted checks suggest Tesla is sourcing parts for 30 million Optimus robots, primarily for use in manufacturing, though the Tesla Diner could also showcase the technology.

“Optimus proof points leave substantial latitude for catalyst creativity, and Tesla must demonstrate leadership versus others like Boston Dynamics and Bot, where we hear Kyle Vogt’s team at Bot started production in June,” he said.

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