Alithya Group keeps “Sector Perform” rating at National Bank

National Bank Financial analyst John Shao is maintaining a “Sector Perform” rating and a 12-month price target of $2.00 on Alithya Group (Alithya Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:ALYA).

In his latest industry note in the National Bank of Canada Financial Markets Calendar Q1 2025 Preview, Shao said he expects Alithya’s upcoming quarterly results to align with forecasts, with signs of a sequential rebound in organic growth following a recovery in bookings last quarter.

“The company has already demonstrated its ability to drive consistent margin improvement, so we deem the profitability shortfall risk fairly low,” Shao said.

Shao noted that while a book-to-bill ratio above 1.0x in FQ3 suggests momentum, the broader environment remains cautious. He said, “We feel it is still a bit early to call for a formal return of organic growth because of the continued macro uncertainties and a soft spending environment. On the flip side, as the company continued its efficiency and cost optimizations, margin expansion should offer some downside protection to this name.”

Shao estimates that Alithya will report $11-million in adjusted EBITDA on $120-million in revenue for the upcoming quarter.

“We maintain our Sector Perform rating for now with a target price of C$2.00 (unchanged),” he added, noting the target is based on a multistage DCF implying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.4x on F2025E.

Alithya recently announced that its CFO, Nicolas Lavoie, is stepping down for personal reasons and not due to any disagreement with the company or the board of directors regarding its financial results, accounting principles or financial statement disclosures.

Alithya appointed Debbie Di Gregorio as interim CFO while the company conducts its CFO search.

“The transition risk is considered low as Ms. Di Gregorio assumed a similar role in the past during Alithya’s last search for a permanent CFO,” Shao said.

Di Gregorio joined Alithya in October 2018 as Vice President of Finance and previously served as Interim CFO from June to December 2024. Before that, she spent nearly 25 years at Richter, a Canadian financial consulting and accounting firm, where she held senior roles including Vice President of Audit. She is a Chartered Professional Accountant with a Graduate Diploma in Accounting from McGill University and a Bachelor of Commerce from Concordia University.

“Debbie has a deep understanding of Alithya’s business and, over the past six years, has been a trusted pillar for the finance and operational teams and for the board of directors, Alithya CEO Paul Raymond said. “As we undertake the search process for a replacement, I look forward to continuing to work with Debbie.”

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