Should you sell your Alithya Group stock?

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff lowered his price target on Alithya Group (Alithya Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:ALYA) to $2.70 from $3.00 but maintained his “Buy” rating following weaker-than-expected Q3/F26 results.

Goff described the quarter as a “tough YoY benchmarking” period, with results falling short of both his estimates and consensus amid moderating U.S. growth and continued softness in Canadian government work.

Q3/F26 revenue, gross profit and Adjusted EBITDA came in at $115.2-million, $36.5-million and $10.0-million, respectively, below Goff’s forecasts of $128.0-million, $43.5-million and $13.3-million. U.S. revenue rose 12.7% year-over-year to $55.0-million, representing 48% of total revenue, but growth moderated from 34.8% in Q2/F26. Canadian revenue declined 12.5% to $54.0-million, reflecting lower government contracts and project completions.

Gross margin was 31.7% versus 32.3% a year ago, while Adjusted EBITDA missed expectations at $10.0-million.

Goff lowered his Q4/F26 and F2027 forecasts, citing difficult comparables and ongoing near-term pressure. He now models F2027 revenue of $479.6-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $47.7-million, down from prior estimates. For fiscal 2026, he expects Adjusted EBITDA of $45.1-million on revenue of $480.0-million, improving to $47.7-million on revenue of $479.6-million in fiscal 2027.

Despite the reset, Goff sees downside support from what he estimates to be a 28% F2026 free cash flow yield and expects a return to year-over-year growth by Q3/F27 to support a potential re-rating.

Management also announced plans to spin out Datum, retaining an approximate 25% stake. Goff views the move as strategically positive, enabling Datum to pursue organic and inorganic growth without channel conflict while preserving upside participation for Alithya.

Shares currently trade at 5.1x/5.8x C2025/26 EV/EBITDA, below North American consulting peers, which Goff argues leaves valuation support intact as financial momentum rebuilds.

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