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Tilray is still a pass, says Haywood

New quarterly results from cannabis company Tilray Brands (Tilray Brands Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:TLRY) weren’t enough to move the needle for Haywood Capital Markets analyst Neal Gilmer, who kept a “Hold” rating on the stock in a Tuesday update to clients.

Tilray, which has operations in Canada, the US, Europe, Latin America and Australia with over 20 brands of cannabis products, announced its second quarter fiscal 2023 financials on Monday for the period ended November 30, 2022. The company posted revenue down 7.1 per cent year-over-year to $144.1 million, coming in below the consensus estimate at $155.8 million and below Haywood’s call at $153.2 million. 

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $11.7 million compared to $13.8 million a year earlier and also represented a miss of analysts’ estimates, with the Street calling for $14.8 million and Haywood at $13.5 million.

The company noted in the Q2 press release its maintained status with the #1 market share with 8.3 per cent of the Canadian market, along with the improving prospects for cannabis legalization across Europe. In his commentary, Tilray Chairman and CEO Irwin D. Simon focused on the company’s progress on reaching long-term profitability through operational changes and cost improvements in aim of increasing cash flow, along with the prospects of accretive acquisitions.

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“We are close to achieving our increased annualized cost savings target of $130 million, consistent with our commitment to building a lean, efficient, and dynamic business that will realize tangible and immediate benefits as the market improves,” Simon wrote in a press release.

Looking at the results, Gilmer said Tilray’s revenue continues to be negatively impacted by the strength of the US dollar along with headwinds in certain Canadian markets. At the same time, he observed that Tilray was able to generate meaningful positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, while he expects the company to continue focusing on cash generation to bolster its cash position in advance of an upcoming debt maturing.

Gilmer expects Tilray to see a revenue rebound over the second half of its fiscal 2023 year, including a strong fiscal fourth quarter coming from seasonality in its alcohol business.

“Tilray remains a market share leader in the Canadian landscape,” Gilmer wrote. “We are encouraged by the international opportunities as well as expanding beverage segment in the US. However, we remain cautious on the overall Canadian landscape, which drives a significant amount of its revenue growth opportunity in the near-term. We maintain our Hold rating as we await more evidence on accelerated near-term revenue growth drivers.”

Gilmer reiterated a target price on TLRY of $3.50 per share, which at press time represented a projected 12-month return of 27 per cent.

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