Nanalysis has an 89 per cent upside, says Echelon

Echelon Capital Markets analyst Stefan Quenneville remains positive in his assessment of Nanalysis Scientific (Nanalysis Stock Quote, Chart, News TSXV:NSCI), maintaining a “Buy” rating and target price of $3.10/share for a projected return of 89 per cent in an update to clients on Friday.

Established in 2009 and headquartered in Calgary, Nanalysis Scientific Corp., develops, manufactures and sells compact nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrometers and MR imaging equipment for the pharmaceutical, biotech, chemical, security, food, materials and education industries.

Quenneville’s updated analysis comes after Nanalysis reported its third quarter financial results, which Quenneville noted to be below expectations despite overall company growth.

“While Q3 is typically NSCI’s seasonally weakest quarter, the shortfall versus expectations was primarily due to production delays that limited shipments of its flagship 100 MHz NMR spectrometer to only two units during the quarter,” Quenneville said. “With these production issues largely resolved heading into 2022 as demand for the company’s portable NMR instruments remains high, as evidenced by the 100 MHz sales backlog growing to 29 units, we expect the company to remain on its impressive growth trajectory and continue to view it as meaningfully undervalued relative to peers.”

The company’s quarterly reports were headlined by $3.34 million in revenue, which represented a 96 per cent year-over-year increase. However, the figure not only came in below the consensus projection of $3.6 million and the Echelon estimate of $3.7 million but it also represented a 23.2 per cent sequential loss, though Quenneville attributed it to reduced summer activity in academic labs with a full expectation for a rebound in the next quarter.

Nanalysis experienced a shortfall in the production of its 100 MHz benchtop instruments on account of disruptions caused by a necessary manufacturing facility expansion expected to double assembly capacity to 30 instruments per quarter by the middle of 2022. However, even with the bottleneck, the company still managed to double its instrument segment revenue to $2.2 million driven by approximately twenty-five 60 MHz instrument shipments, though the result still came in below the Echelon estimate of $2.7 million.

Meanwhile, RS2D components provided a beat for the company, as Nanalysis reported 90 per cent growth in the segment to $1.2 million to beat the $1 million Echelon projection.  

The company’s EBITDA followed a similar path as it broke even to improve upon the $400,000 loss incurred in the same quarter of 2020, but as it was with revenue, it missed the Echelon projection of $600,000 in positive EBITDA.

“We are happy with our continued growth and relied on our strong product line in the third quarter to continue our revenue trajectory,” said Sean Krakiwsky, Founder and CEO of Nanalysis in the company’s November 18 press release. “We are addressing our manufacturing constraints to satisfy the demand of our growing backlog for our 100 MHz product. Deliveries have picked up and will continue to do so in the coming months with the goal of minimizing any backlog. Our hard work continues to yield results and I’m very proud of our team.”

Nanalysis has also continued on its acquisition path, having recently signed a binding letter of intent to acquire KPrime Technologies, a scientific instrument-focused contract sales and service organization serving multiple key North American markets, with Quenneville viewing the deal as a strategic, low-risk way to increase its headcount while adding capital sales and recurring service contract revenue.

On account of a cautious approach to ongoing supply chain issues, as well as potential shipping issues arising from the flooding in British Columbia, Quenneville is projecting more modest growth for the company over the next year or two, highlighted by a potential 109 per cent year-over-year increase in revenue to a projected $16.5 million for 2021, followed by a potential 116 per cent year-over-year increase to $35.6 million for 2022. 

Quenneville also expects the company’s EBITDA to turn positive at $2.3 million for a 13.9 per cent margin in 2021 after reporting a $1.6 million loss in 2020, then projecting a near tripling to $6.6 million in EBITDA for 2022, marking an 18.5 per cent margin.

The company’s valuation data also shows the company heading in the right direction, as Quenneville’s EV/Sales multiple is projected at 8.5x for Nanalysis for 2021 compared to an 8.3x projection for peers, then outstripping its peers with a projected drop to 3.9x for Nanalysis in 2022 and a 7.4x multiple for peers. 

Quenneville projects a multiple of 59.4x in 2021 for Nanalysis compared to the peer projection of 29.4x, with Nanalysis making up the difference in 2022 with a projected multiple of 21.3x compared to 26.5x for the peer group.

Nanalysis has seen its stock value triple over the course of 2021, with its upswing having begun at the end of May and reaching as high as $1.69/share on November 11 before falling off a bit over the last week.