BlackBerry’s upcoming Q1 results might be better than expected, this analyst says

“The bar is low”.

That’s what RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber says about expectations for the upcoming results from BlackBerry (BlackBerry Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:BB).

The analyst says the results may deliver a mild surprise.

“BlackBerry’s FY26 guidance appears conservative to us, as guidance for $230-240-million Secure Communications revenue (down 14 per cent year-over-year mid-point) only implies $27MM non-recurring revenue, down from $70-million in the prior year,” Treiber wrote. “We believe BlackBerry may increase FY26 Secure Communications revenue guidance by $10-30-million (4-13 per cent), given likely more stable renewals and incremental license revenue. Due to higher revenue, we believe BlackBerry may raise FY26 adj. EPS guidance to $0.10-0.12 from $0.08-0.10 previously.”

As reported by The Globe and Mail, Treiber June 23 maintained his “Sector Perform” rating and (US) $3.75 price target on BlackBerry.

So what can BlackBerry do to win back the good graces of the market? Treiber explained.

“BlackBerry is trading at 4.7 times NTM [next 12-month] EV/S, which is an 11-per-cent discount to auto tech peers, above BlackBerry’s 5-year average (4.0 times and 35-per-cent discount),” he said. “We believe a sustained upwards re-rating is dependent on: 1) strengthening IoT growth; and 2) realization of improved profitability.”

On June 24, after the market close, BlackBerry will report its Q1, 2026 results.

On April 2, BB reported its Q4, 2025 results. The company posted Adjusted EBITDA of $21.1-million on revenue of $141.7-million.

“BlackBerry closed out this transformational fiscal year with another quarter of strong financial performance from all three divisions: QNX, Secure Communications and Licensing. We also took a big step forward by completing the sale of the Cylance business to Arctic Wolf, a win-win for all parties, and significantly strengthening our balance sheet in the process.” CEO John J. Giamatteo said. “We started the year with a goal to deliver profitability and positive cash flow, and we’re pleased we delivered across the board. BlackBerry goes into the new fiscal year in a strong financial position, with a solid balance sheet that provides optionality for driving shareholder value.”