Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley believes Columbia Care (Columbia Care Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:CCHW) is ready to bloom, reiterating in a Tuesday report his “Buy” rating and target price of C$12.00/share.
Founded in 2012 with its headquarters in New York City, Columbia Care is a cannabis operation in the United States with interests in 18 jurisdictions representing an aggregate population of 175 million, as well as having a strong presence in the Mid-Atlantic region through its recent acquisition of gLeaf.
Stanley’s latest analysis comes after Columbia Care became the first of the ten licensed operators within the state of New York to launch its whole flower operation, with sales beginning on Tuesday in its Rochester dispensary and on Wednesday in its dispensaries in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Riverhead.
Stanley said the company had significantly ramped up flower production earlier this year in anticipation of the state regulator allowing whole flower sales in New York, with a particular emphasis on the productivity from this year’s harvest from the company’s Long Island greenhouse facility.
“We are New York’s home team, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Columbia Care continues to be on the leading edge of the state’s cannabis program – from opening the first medical dispensary in New York State and New York City, to being the first to bring a critical, natural medicine in its most highly-demanded and cost-effective form, whole flower, to New Yorkers,” said Nicholas Vita, CEO of Columbia Care in the company’s October 25 press release.
“This is a meaningful moment to us, and we are grateful to our team for their dedication to the New York market as well as to the state’s leadership and the Office of Cannabis Management for moving this program forward. This is the next step in the evolution of New York’s legal cannabis market, and we are committed to leading its continued forward progress,” Vita said.
In addition to its whole flower launch in New York, Columbia Care has also been busy with its existing products, having announced a partnership with international recording artist Pitbull to develop a new line of high quality, full spectrum CBD products under the N2P brand. The initial launch will include lip balms, salves, tinctures, and sour gummies in its New York, Maryland, and Delaware dispensaries, with chocolate products and expansion to its Colorado dispensaries expected before the end of the year.
“I’m honored to partner with Columbia Care to announce our new CBD line N2P (Negative to Positive),” said Armando Christian Perez, a.k.a. Pitbull. “N2P is an all-natural, high-quality product directed at the therapeutic benefits of CBD. It’s designed to help customers stay focused, positive and feeling their best. It’s our goal to change the perception about the health and wellness benefits of CBD products. We look forward to sharing N2P with fans around the world.”
Stanley projects a spike in the company’s financial metrics over the next two fiscal years, reaffirming a projected revenue jump to $520 million in 2021 (all report figures in US dollars unless otherwise noted) for a potential year-over-year increase of 163 per cent, with a further projection of $908 million in revenue in play for 2022, producing a potential year-over-year increase of 74.6 per cent.
After the company reported a $4 million loss in 2020, Stanley projects a positive annual adjusted EBITDA beginning in 2021 at $95 million for a margin of 18.3 per cent, with a significant spike to a projected $297 million in 2022, good for a potential margin of 32.7 per cent. (All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise noted.)
Stanley’s valuation data also comes into clearer focus, with the EV/IFRS revenue multiple forecast to drop to 3.3x in 2021 (previously 3.8x) from the reported mark of 9.3x (previously 10.7x) in 2020, followed by a further drop to 1.8x (previously 2.1x) for 2022. Meanwhile, with positive adjusted EBITDA projected, Stanley forecasts the EV/EBITDA multiple to be 17.5x in 2021 (previously 20.1x), with a drop to 5.6x (previously 6.4x) in 2022.
With the company’s third quarter financial reports expected on November 12, Stanley believes Columbia Care is going to further establish its roots in the New York marketplace.
“As flower typically represents about 50 per cent of sales in markets that allow it, the introduction of flower should double the addressable market in New York,” Stanley said. “While we are leaving our estimates/valuation unchanged, we view the development positively as being first to market with flower in New York is a major accomplishment.”
Overall, Columbia Care’s stock price has dropped 53.6 per cent for the year to date, and is presently at its low point of C$3.83/share on the Canadian Securities Exchange after peaking at C$9.70/share on February 8. At press time, Stanley’s C$12.00 target represented a projected one-year return of 200 per cent.
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