VIVO Cannabis is very undervalued, Clarus Securities says

With now four record revenue quarters in a row, VIVO Cannabis (VIVO Cannabis Stock Quote, Chart, News TSX:VIVO) is bucking the industry trend, according to Clarus Securities analyst Noel Atkinson, who reviewed the company’s latest financials in an update to clients on Monday.

Atkinson raised his 2020 estimates for VIVO on the back of the strong second quarter performance, saying he expects significant margin improvements in coming quarters.

Toronto-headquartered VIVO Cannabis is a Canadian licensed producer with ABcann Medicinals in Napanee, Ontario, and Canna Farms in Hope, BC, along with operations in Australia and Germany. VIVO has a stable of cannabis brands and medical cannabis clinics under Harvest Medicine.

For its Q2 2020, announced on August 14, VIVO hit net revenue of $9.4 million, a 15 per cent increase over the Q1 and a 79 per cent increase year-over-year. Concentrates sales (of hash, shatter and kief) accounted for over half of VIVO’s Q2 revenue, where the company was one of the first LPs in the country to launch, resulting in 68 per cent of the Ontario market share for concentrates over the second quarter.

On the quarter, CEO Barry Fishman said he was pleased with the results.

“Notable achievements include the expansion of our leadership position in the concentrates category across several provinces, the introduction of a first-to-market shatter by Fireside X, and the naming of Canna Farms as the fourth most recognized cannabis brand among Canadian cannabis consumers in a recent Brightfield Group survey. We also advanced several key medical cannabis initiatives in order to position the business for future success, including entering into product supply and clinical services agreements with Medical Cannabis by Shoppers,” Fishman wrote in a press release.

Comparing the numbers, Atkinson said VIVO’s Q2 revenue of $9.4 million was well ahead of his $6.9-million estimate, as was the company’s adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.2 million compared to his negative $3.5-million forecast.

“VIVO’s production capacity has grown substantially with the additional extraction, processing, and packaging areas in its facilities now up and running. We believe VIVO has been selling everything it can make for cannabis 2.0 products. The additional supply should begin to enter the market in Q4, and in turn we expect revenues to ramp accordingly,” Atkinson wrote.

Compared to the rest of the field, Atkinson said VIVO is trading at a meaningful discount via price/sales and EV/adjusted EBITDA metrics. The analyst thinks the company’s cash on hand (approx. $22.2 million at the end of Q2) plus an assumed credit facility of $20 million will be more than sufficient to cover both the remaining $27.1-million of well-out-of-the-money convertible debentures set to mature on December 21, 2020, working capital expenses until the company achieves positive free cash flow.

“We believe VIVO is one of the best-positioned mid-sized LPs in the Canadian market with extensive legal market experience, well-regarded indoor-grown flower, a solid and profitable base of medical cannabis patients, strong management team, and a differentiated cannabis 2.0 product line (kief, shatter and bubble hash along with vapes and edibles),” Atkinson said.

With the update, the analyst has maintained his “Buy” rating and $0.70 per share target, which at press time represented a projected return of 169 per cent. For 2020, Atkinson is now calling for revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $38.9 million (previously $38.0 million) and negative $7.3 million (previously $8.1 million), respectively.