CannTrust Holdings has a 57 per cent upside, GMP says

With a new infusion of cash and EBITDA-positive status, licensed cannabis producer CannTrust Holdings Inc. (CannTrust Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News: TSX:TRST) is a “Buy,” says analyst Martin Landry with GMP Securities.

In a Thursday coverage resumption, Landry dropped his target for TRST to $14.50.

Yesterday, Vaughan, Ontario-based CannTrust announced the closing of a $100 million bought deal with Canaccord Genuity and GMP Securities co-leading the underwriting. The company says it will use about $17 million of the proceeds to build a 485,000 sq. ft. greenhouse in Niagara, Ontario, about $14 million on new extraction equipment and infrastructure, $10 million on global investments and a further $25 million on branding, new products, distribution and corporate use.

Landry says that CannTrust’s crop yields, currently at over 300 grams per sq. ft., are among the highest in the sector, which lead to it being one of only four public growers to generate positive EBITDA over the past 12 months.

At the same time, CannTrust’s first quarter 2018 financials came in slightly under expectation, with revenue of $7.8 million (versus the consensus $7.9 million) and an EBITDA loss of $1.4 million (versus the consensus negative $0.2 million).

“With a cash balance in excess of $100m, CannTrust is well funded to carry its near-term expansion plans and bring production capacity in excess of 100 tonnes,” says Landry. “However, the last two quarters have come below expectations on lower selling prices and higher production costs. We reduce our forecasts to reflect lower pricing and higher SG&A spend in anticipation of the rec market.”

Landry’s 2018 estimates have CannTrust producing revenue of $82.0 million (was $88.2 million) and EBITDA of $9.8 million (was $26.0 million). His 2019 estimates call for a topline of $219.1 million (was $241.4 million) and EBITDA of $63.1 million (was $78.1 million).

The analyst’s target price of $14.50 (was $16.00) represents a projected return of 57 per cent at the time of publication.

Disclosure: Jayson MacLean owns shares of CannTrust Holdings.