Is Ormat Technologies a buy right now?

Roth Capital Partners analyst Justin Clare says Ormat Technologies’ (Ormat Technologies Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:ORA) 2026 analyst day laid out a higher-growth plan through 2030, led by new capacity, stronger electricity margins and storage growth.

In a Sept. 10 update, Clare maintained his “Buy” rating and US$130.00 target on Ormat.

Ormat is targeting 2030 run-rate revenue of US$1.5-billion to US$1.6-billion and Adjusted EBITDA of US$1.0-billion to US$1.1-billion, excluding enhanced geothermal systems.

Clare said the targets imply a 12.5% Adjusted EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025.

The company is targeting 3.5 to 3.7 gigawatts of portfolio capacity by 2030, up from 1.7 gigawatts in 2025.

Electricity remains the main earnings driver. Ormat expects electricity capacity to reach 2.0 to 2.1 gigawatts by 2030, excluding EGS, supported by a 48-site geothermal pipeline and higher drilling activity.

Clare said power purchase agreements rolling through 2034 could add about US$50-million of annual revenue, with current geothermal pricing above US$100 per megawatt-hour compared with Ormat’s average U.S. PPA price of about US$68 from 2017 to 2024.

Storage is also expected to grow, with Ormat targeting 1.5 to 1.6 gigawatts, or 5.1 to 5.5 gigawatt-hours, by 2030. Merchant exposure is expected to fall to 23% of capacity from 56%, improving earnings visibility.

EGS is not included in the 2030 targets, but Clare said it could become Ormat’s largest source of upside in the 2030s if pilot results are successful.

“EGS is excluded from the 2030 targets but could become a significant growth driver into the 2030s, subject to pilot validation,” Clare said.

Ormat expects its 2030 base plan to be funded without issuing equity. Management projects net debt of about US$3.5-billion by 2030, or about 3.3 times Adjusted EBITDA, down from 4.3 times today.

Clare expects Ormat to generate Adjusted EBITDA of US$635.8-million on revenue of US$1.18-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of US$670.4-million on revenue of US$1.17-billion in fiscal 2027.

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