Ascend Wellness keeps “Buy” rating with this analyst

Haywood analyst Neal Gilmer maintained a “Buy” rating and $1.00 target on Ascend Wellness Holdings (Ascend Wellness Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:AAWH.U) in a May 14 report after first-quarter results beat his EBITDA expectations.

“We reiterate our Buy recommendation,” Gilmer said. “We believe Ascend is favourably positioned in attractive markets to support long-term growth.”

Ascend reported Q1 revenue of $116.9-million, slightly ahead of Gilmer’s $116.5-million estimate and consensus at $115.4-million. Adjusted EBITDA was $26.3-million, ahead of his $23.9-million forecast, with margin of 22.5%.

Gilmer said the expected seasonal revenue decline was offset by stronger margins, with adjusted gross margin rising sequentially to 46.1%, above his 42.0% estimate.

Ascend has opened five dispensaries so far in 2026 and has a pipeline of 10 new stores, which would lift its footprint to at least 60 locations by year-end. Management guided Q2 revenue to rise two to three per cent, with EBITDA margins holding in the low-20% range.

“Management has outlined its strategy on going deep across its current core markets,” Gilmer said, adding Ascend may also expand into new states where it sees attractive opportunities.

Gilmer expects Ascend to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $117.2-million on revenue of $491.3-million in fiscal 2026, improving to $133.3-million on revenue of $520.1-million in fiscal 2027.

Disclosure: Nick Waddell owns shares of Ascend.

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