This analyst just upgraded Quebecor

National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine upgraded Quebecor (Quebecor Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:QBR.B) to “Outperform” from “Sector Perform” and raised his target to $59.00 from $57.00 ahead of first-quarter results due May 14, saying the recent share-price pullback has improved the setup.

In an April 13 note, Shine said Quebecor’s cable business could return to revenue growth for the first time since the third quarter of 2023, while the wireless segment continues to post market-share gains and improving average revenue per user. He said those trends support a stronger telecom outlook than the Street is currently modelling.

Shine is forecasting first-quarter revenue of $1.388-billion, above the consensus estimate of $1.362-billion. He expects telecom revenue to rise 4.6% and telecom EBITDA to increase 5.8%, compared with consensus expectations for growth of 1.8% and 3.4%, respectively. He said his model is above the Street on cable revenue, wireless service revenue, wireless equipment revenue and telecom EBITDA, though lower on media revenue and more conservative on the head office line because of ongoing volatility in share-based compensation.

Shine is sees EBITDA of $577-million and adjusted EPS of $0.88, below broader consensus estimates of $586-million and $0.96. He said the difference is largely tied to a more cautious assumption for head office EBITDA, where he is using a $38-million charge versus consensus at $12-million, reflecting uncertainty around share-based compensation expense.

Quebecor repurchased 1.55 million shares in the first quarter at an average price of $53.99.

Shine said his new $59.00 target is based on the average of his 2026 discounted cash flow estimate and 2027 net asset value estimate, implying EV/EBITDA multiples of 7.9x on 2026 estimates and 7.4x on 2027 estimates.

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