Docebo wins huge price target raise at ATB

ATB Capital Markets analyst Gavin Fairweather said after attending Docebo’s (Docebo Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:DCBO) investor event in Miami that the company’s product momentum, AI roadmap and improving competitive position support a higher valuation, raising his price target to C$36.00 from C$25.00 and maintaining an “Outperform” rating.

“We walked away from the event impressed by the product direction and pace of R&D and sensed genuine excitement from customers,” Fairweather said.

Fairweather said customer, partner and prospect feedback pointed to strong reception for Docebo’s core learning-management platform, with attendees highlighting configurability, faster product development and a broader vision built around learning, skills, enterprise knowledge and AI-driven automation. He said the company appears to be gaining ground against competitors such as Cornerstone and Absorb, while new chief revenue officer Mark Kosoglow’s go-to-market discipline is helping shorten sales cycles and improve pipeline conversion.

The analyst also said Docebo is accelerating product development with AI embedded across the product team, driving a 50% increase in productivity with the same resources. Customers at the event pointed to a faster release cadence over the past two years, while new offerings such as AI Tutoring, Harmony Search, Companion and AgentHub broaden the platform’s automation and knowledge-management capabilities. Fairweather said those additions should support upsell opportunities and make the platform more deeply embedded with customers.

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Docebo’s acquisition of 365Talents strengthens its position in skills intelligence and enterprise use cases, with early customer interest suggesting potential cross-sell opportunities across both internal and external skills mapping. Fairweather said the company’s growth vectors now include greater AI upsell, skills cross-sell, government, and continued enterprise traction.

Alongside the event, Docebo pre-released first-quarter results that came in ahead of expectations and raised 2026 guidance. Revenue is expected at $65.4-million to $65.6-million, up 14.3% year-over-year, while ARR is expected to reach $249.0-million, up 11%. Excluding Dayforce OEM churn, acquisitions and foreign exchange, Fairweather said organic core ARR growth accelerated to 13.7% from 12.5% in the fourth quarter.

For full-year 2026, Docebo now expects revenue of $271-million to $273-million, up from prior guidance of $267.5-million to $269.5-million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $54.5-million to $56.5-million, up from $52.5-million to $54.5-million. Fairweather said management’s confidence reflects continued mid-market strength, a better-than-expected government pipeline, improving enterprise momentum and product expansions, with two new contracts above $1-million ARR already signed in the first quarter.

Fairweather said Docebo’s revised target model also reflects structural margin benefits from AI, including lower expected spending ratios for R&D and sales and marketing. He noted the company’s total addressable market has expanded to $40-billion from $25-billion as it evolves into what management calls a unified learning and knowledge platform.

With momentum building and the stock still trading at 9.5x 2026 EBITDA, Fairweather said the risk-reward remains skewed to the upside. He continues to value the shares at 2.5x 2026 sales, which supports his new C$36.00 target.

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