Should you sell your Docebo stock?

ATB Capital Markets analyst Gavin Fairweather maintained his “Outperform” rating on Docebo (Docebo Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:DCBO), while lowering his price target to C$35.00 from C$43.00 in a March 2 report.

Fairweather said he sees improving competitiveness and strengthening go-to-market momentum, arguing that concerns around AI disruption are overstated.

“We think concerns around AI disruption for Docebo are overblown,” he wrote.

The new C$35.00 target is based on 2.5x 2026 sales, down from 3.0x previously, and equivalent to 13x 2026 EBITDA. He noted the shares are trading at 1.8x 2026 ARR, 9.0x 2026 EBITDA and 7.3x 2027 EBITDA, with a 12.6% free cash flow yield on 2027 estimates. The stock is also trading at a 17% discount to the company’s current substantial issuer bid price, which Fairweather expects to be fully utilized.

Docebo reported Q4 revenue of US$63.0-million, up 11% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA of US$13.3-million, representing a 21.2% margin, both at or slightly above pre-released results. Annual recurring revenue was US$238.1-million, up 8% year-over-year, or 14% excluding one-time churn from AWS and Dayforce as well as FX tailwinds.

Incremental ARR in Q4, excluding that churn, was US$11.0-million, up 19% year-over-year and the highest since Q4 2021. Net dollar retention was 99% in 2025, or 106% excluding AWS and Dayforce. Fairweather pointed to improving enterprise momentum, new public sector wins and cross-sell opportunities from the 365Talents acquisition as potential upside drivers.

Management reiterated 2026 guidance for revenue of US$267.5-million to US$269.5-million, or roughly 9% year-over-year growth, and Adjusted EBITDA of US$52.5-million to US$54.5-million, implying a margin of about 20%.

Fairweather expects Docebo to generate US$53.6-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$268.6-million in fiscal 2026, improving to US$65.9-million in EBITDA on revenue of US$299.8-million in fiscal 2027.

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