Kinaxis won’t be killed by AI, National Bank says

National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse reiterated an “Outperform” rating and C$240.00 target on Kinaxis (Kinaxis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:KXS) after meeting with CEO Razat Gaurav, saying the company appears to be building fundamental momentum despite negative sentiment toward enterprise software.

In a March 25 report, Tse said the discussion reinforced his view that Kinaxis is seeing improving demand as supply chain volatility rises, while also making progress monetizing artificial intelligence and introducing new pricing levers.

“Despite the negative sentiment around enterprise software, our overall takeaway was for building fundamental momentum in the overall business underscored by increasingly supportive demand from rising supply chain volatility, a growing ability to monetize AI, and potentially incremental revenue through its new Maestro Activity Units pricing model,” he said.

Kinaxis is a cloud-based software-as-a-service provider focused on supply chain management.

Tse said Gaurav’s decision to join the company is a positive signal, noting the CEO left a strong position at private software company Planview to take the role. He added that Kinaxis’s scale, customer base and culture appear to provide a solid platform for further growth.

On AI, Tse said management made a strong case that Kinaxis’s core models are not easily displaced by large language models because the company’s value comes from its deep supply chain data, optimization logic and role as a system of record. He said Kinaxis is instead using generative AI to improve the user experience and enable new agent-based workflows through Maestro.

Tse also highlighted Kinaxis’s new Maestro Activity Units pricing model, which shifts monetization away from seat counts toward usage-based measures such as optimization runs, decision points and tasks. The company began rolling out the model on new proposals in February and expects to extend it to renewals starting in July.

While it is still early, Tse views the move as a proactive step that could create incremental revenue over time.

He added that management expressed a high degree of confidence in its 17% to 19% SaaS growth target for 2026, noting constant-currency SaaS growth was already running at about 18% in 2025. Based on commentary around the pipeline, enterprise wins and customer expansion activity, Tse said the outlook appears conservative.

Management also pointed to growing demand in sectors such as high-tech and pharmaceuticals, where supply chain complexity is increasing. Tse said recent large enterprise wins and stronger sales execution appear to support that view.

Tse said the key metrics for investors remain SaaS revenue growth and EBITDA margin. Management continues to target a 25% to 26% EBITDA margin in 2026 and sees 25% as a floor in future years as the business scales.

“This remains one of our Top Picks,” Tse said.

National Bank forecasts Kinaxis will generate C$161.0-million in Adjusted EBITDA on C$628.3-million in revenue in fiscal 2026, improving to C$183.7-million in Adjusted EBITDA on C$713.2-million in revenue in fiscal 2027.

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