Is Premium Brands Holdings stock a buy?

Chris Li of Desjardins Securities maintained a “Buy” rating and C$120.00 price target on Premium Brands Holdings (Premium Brands Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:PBH) ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results scheduled for release on March 19.

In a March 15 preview note, Li said the company’s current below-average valuation reflects limited earnings visibility tied to macroeconomic uncertainty, though he expects stronger growth to emerge in 2026.

“We expect 4Q results to reflect a transitory impact from high beef-cost inflation, partially offset by continued strong OVGR at Specialty Foods supported by new programs,” Li said.

Li forecasts Adjusted EBITDA of C$177-million for Q4, slightly below the C$180-million consensus estimate, implying results at the low end of management’s full-year 2025 guidance of C$670-million to C$680-million. Elevated beef costs are expected to weigh on margins, while continued strong organic volume growth in the Specialty Foods segment should provide partial support.

Looking ahead, Li expects the company’s 2026 outlook to be the main focus for investors. He forecasts revenue of about C$9.5-billion in 2026, representing roughly C$2-billion in year-over-year growth, with about two-thirds driven by the acquisition of Stampede Culinary Partners, which closed on Jan. 2.

The remainder of the growth is expected to come from legacy Specialty Foods operations, supported by organic volume growth of about 10 per cent and pricing actions to offset commodity cost inflation.

Li forecasts 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of C$900-million, implying 34 per cent year-over-year growth, with roughly 60 per cent of the increase attributable to the Stampede acquisition, including expected synergies.

For fiscal 2027, Desjardins forecasts revenue of C$10.3-billion and Adjusted EBITDA of C$1.004-billion.

Li said the stock trades at about 9.6 times 2026 expected EBITDA, below its historical average of roughly 11 times, despite what he described as strong double-digit growth prospects.

“We believe PBH’s valuation is inexpensive,” Li said, adding that improving earnings visibility and a clearer path to deleveraging through lower capital spending, working-capital improvements, asset divestitures and strategic partnerships could serve as key catalysts.

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