Space is not the Final Frontier for MDA, this analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley says space is not the final frontier for MDA Space (MDA Space Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MDA), reiterating his “Buy” rating and $60.00 price target after the company launched a new non-space defence subsidiary.

In a Feb. 19 note, Stanley highlighted MDA’s creation of 49North, a wholly owned unit focused on domestic defence opportunities outside of space, specifically secure, multi-domain C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) systems — integrated defence platforms that connect sensors, data networks and command infrastructure across land, air, sea, space and cyber operations..

The business will leverage expertise from MDA’s Geointelligence segment, which generates approximately $200-million in last-twelve-month revenue, or about 13% of total sales.

MDA has appointed Joe Armstrong, formerly COO of CAE’s defence business, as President of 49North, reporting directly to CEO Mike Greenley. Stanley views the move as a modest near-term positive that could expand MDA’s addressable market, particularly as Canada advances its Defence Industrial Strategy.

“Pending implementation of Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy, MDA may now have even more shots on goal in winning defence business in Canada,” Stanley said, adding that international expansion could follow over time.

MDA reports fourth-quarter results on March 4. Stanley forecasts revenue of $467-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $88-million, in line with consensus expectations of $470-million and $88-million, respectively. He will also be watching for 2026 guidance and updates on backlog and orders.

Stanley estimates MDA will generate $316-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $1,601-million in fiscal 2025, improving to $347-million in EBITDA on revenue of $1,790-million in fiscal 2026.

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