Should you sell your Bragg Gaming Group stock?

Haywood analyst Gianluca Tucci lowered his price target on Bragg Gaming Group (Bragg Gaming Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:BRAG) to C$5.50 from C$7.50 but reiterated his “Buy” rating following a softer-than-expected Q4 preannouncement and 2026 guidance that fell short of consensus.

Bragg Gaming is a global B2B gaming technology company providing turnkey gaming solutions to casino operators. The company generates the majority of its revenue in Europe, while expanding into North America and Latin America.

Bragg preannounced Q4/25 revenue of €27.7-million and Adjusted EBITDA of €4.6-million, below consensus estimates of €28.4-million and €5.0-million, and Tucci’s forecasts of €28.2-million and €4.8-million.

For 2026, the company guided to revenue of €97.0-million to €104.5-million and Adjusted EBITDA of €16.0-million to €19.0-million, compared with consensus and Tucci’s prior estimates of €109.5-million/€110.2-million in revenue and €18.3-million/€17.9-million in EBITDA.

Tucci characterized the reset as a “necessary pivot” as the company diversifies geographically beyond the Netherlands and shifts toward higher-margin products.

He noted that regulatory and tax headwinds in the Netherlands — including an increase in betting and lottery tax to 34.2% in January 2025, with a further rise to 37.8% in 2026 — have pressured the broader industry. The Netherlands has historically been Bragg’s largest market and is the primary driver of the softer 2026 outlook.

In response, Bragg recently announced a restructuring that includes a 12% reduction in global headcount, expected to generate €4.5-million in annualized savings, with a one-time €1.0-million charge in Q1/26.

“We view this move as a proactive pivot to align the company’s cost structure with its new AI-first strategy and to offset recent regulatory headwinds,” Tucci said.

The company is also expanding in the U.S. and Brazil, now addressing more than 90% of the U.S. online casino total addressable market and targeting up to 15% of 2025 revenue from the U.S. and 10% from Brazil.

“BRAG continues to expand its presence across its main geographies in Europe but has its eye on monetizing the lucrative North American opportunity,” Tucci said. “The Company is pointing to margin expansion in the quarters ahead driven by cost efficiencies and a focus on margins over aggressive revenue growth.”

Tucci revised his estimates to reflect the updated outlook, now forecasting €106.1-million in revenue and €16.6-million in Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, and €100.8-million in revenue and €17.5-million in EBITDA for 2026.

He believes acquisitions remain a potential catalyst in what he described as a fragmented iGaming landscape.

Tucci said Bragg should generate €17.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of €100.8-million in fiscal 2026, with results stabilizing in fiscal 2027 as geographic diversification progresses.

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